Bai Ruhai, Wu Wentao, Dong Wanyue, Liu Jinli, Yang Lili, Lyu Jun
Department of Clinical Research, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
Evidence-Based Research Center of Social Science & Health, Public Affair School of Nanjing University of Science & Technology, Nanjing, People's Republic of China.
Diabetes Metab Syndr Obes. 2020 Dec 8;13:4849-4857. doi: 10.2147/DMSO.S274110. eCollection 2020.
The objective of this study was to forecast the prevalence rates and the populations of overweight and obese in Chinese adults for 2030.
Nine waves of China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data from 1991 to 2015 were used. A polynomial regression model was fitted to obtain the average BMI change trajectory of the population born in different years according to different sexes and residence areas (urban and rural). The model fitted to CHNS 2015 survey data was used to forecast the distribution of BMI and the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in 15 years. The United Nations population forecast was then used to predict the proportions of overweight obese adults in all age groups in China in 2030.
The prevalence rates of overweight and obesity were projected to increase in both sexes and all geographic areas in future. By 2030, urban males will have the highest prevalence of overweight, 50.7% (95% CI: 47.5%, 53.9%). Except urban males, the prevalence of overweight and obesity in rural areas will exceed that in urban for both sexes. In 2030, the numbers of overweight and obese people in China aged 20-89 years will reach 540 million and 150 million, respectively, which are 2.8 and 7.5 times higher compared to prevalences in 2000. In 2030, the number of overweight and obese people in China aged 60-89 years will reach 200 million and 40 million, respectively, 6.3 and 8.5 times increments from the year 2000.
The prevalence rates of overweight and obese in Chinese adults are projected to increase further, by 2030 more than half of adult males living in urban areas will be overweight. Combined with changes in the population age structure, overweight and obesity will have a huge impact on the health of the Chinese population over the next 15 years.
本研究的目的是预测2030年中国成年人超重和肥胖的患病率及人数。
使用了1991年至2015年的九轮中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）数据。拟合多项式回归模型，以根据不同性别和居住地区（城市和农村）获得不同年份出生人群的平均BMI变化轨迹。利用拟合到2015年CHNS调查数据的模型预测15年后BMI的分布以及超重和肥胖的患病率。然后使用联合国人口预测来预测2030年中国所有年龄组超重肥胖成年人的比例。
预计未来男女及所有地理区域的超重和肥胖患病率都会上升。到2030年，城市男性超重患病率将最高，为50.7%（95%CI：47.5%，53.9%）。除城市男性外，农村地区男女超重和肥胖患病率都将超过城市。2030年，中国20-89岁超重和肥胖人数将分别达到5.4亿和1.5亿，分别是2000年患病率的2.8倍和7.5倍。2030年，中国60-89岁超重和肥胖人数将分别达到2亿和4000万，比2000年分别增长6.3倍和8.5倍。
预计中国成年人超重和肥胖患病率将进一步上升，到2030年，居住在城市地区的成年男性中将有超过一半超重。结合人口年龄结构变化，超重和肥胖将在未来15年对中国人口健康产生巨大影响。
