Li Baojing, Tang Hong, Cheng Zilu, Zhang Yuxiao, Xiang Hao
Department of Global Health, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Front Public Health. 2020 Dec 11;8:598215. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.598215. eCollection 2020.
Leukemia is one of the most common cancers. We conducted this study to comprehensively analyze the temporal trends of leukemia mortality during 2003-2017 and project the trends until 2030. We extracted national-level data on annual leukemia mortality from China Health Statistics Yearbooks (2003-2017). We applied the Joinpoint regression model to assess leukemia mortality trends in urban and rural China by sex during 2003-2017. We also produced sex-specific leukemia mortality using the adjusted Global Burden Disease (GBD) 2016 projection model. In urban areas, age-standardized leukemia mortality decreased significantly among females during 2003-2017 (APC = -0.9%; 95% CI: -1.7, -0.1%). In rural areas, significant decreases of age-standardized leukemia mortality were both found among males (APC = -1.7%; 95% CI: -2.9, -0.5%) and females (APC = -1.6%; 95% CI: -2.6, -0.7%) from 2008 to 2017. Rural-urban and sex disparities of leukemia mortality will continue to exist until the year 2030. According to projection, the leukemia mortality rates of males and rural populations are higher than that of females and urban populations. In 2030, leukemia mortality is projected to decrease to 3.03/100,000 and 3.33/100,000 among the males in urban and rural areas, respectively. In females, leukemia mortality will decrease to 1.87/100,000 and 2.26/100,000 among urban and rural areas, respectively. Our study suggests that more precautionary measures to reduce leukemia mortality are need, and more attention should be paid to rural residents and males in primary prevention of leukemia in China.
白血病是最常见的癌症之一。我们开展这项研究以全面分析2003 - 2017年期间白血病死亡率的时间趋势，并预测至2030年的趋势。我们从《中国卫生统计年鉴》（2003 - 2017年）中提取了全国年度白血病死亡率数据。我们应用Joinpoint回归模型评估2003 - 2017年期间中国城乡按性别划分的白血病死亡率趋势。我们还使用调整后的全球疾病负担（GBD）2016预测模型得出了按性别划分的白血病死亡率。在城市地区，2003 - 2017年期间女性年龄标准化白血病死亡率显著下降（年度百分比变化 = -0.9%；95%置信区间：-1.7，-0.1%）。在农村地区，2008年至2017年期间男性（年度百分比变化 = -1.7%；95%置信区间：-2.9，-0.5%）和女性（年度百分比变化 = -1.6%；95%置信区间：-2.6，-0.7%）的年龄标准化白血病死亡率均显著下降。直至2030年，白血病死亡率的城乡和性别差异仍将存在。据预测，男性和农村人口的白血病死亡率高于女性和城市人口。到2030年，预计城市和农村男性的白血病死亡率将分别降至3.03/10万和3.33/10万。在女性中，城市和农村地区的白血病死亡率将分别降至1.87/10万和2.26/10万。我们的研究表明，需要采取更多预防措施以降低白血病死亡率，在中国白血病一级预防中应更加关注农村居民和男性。
