The Predictive Ability of MAGGIC Score After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A Comparative Study.

INTRODUCTION

The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) are validated scoring systems for short-term risk estimation after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk score is originally aimed to estimate mortality in heart failure patients; however, it has showed a similar power to predict mortality after heart valve surgery. In this study, we sought to evaluate whether MAGGIC score may predict short and long-term mortality after CABG and to compare its power with EuroSCORE II and STS scoring systems.

METHODS

Patients who underwent CABG due to chronic coronary syndrome at our institution were included in this retrospective study. Follow-up data were used to define the predictive ability of MAGGIC and to compare it with STS and EuroSCORE-II for early, one-year, and up to 10-year mortality.

RESULTS

MAGGIC, STS, and EuroSCORE-II scores had good prognostic power, moreover MAGGIC was better for predicting 30-day (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.903; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.871-0.935), one-year (AUC: 0.931; 95% CI: 0.907-0.955), and 10-year (AUC: 0.923; 95% CI: 0.893-0.954) mortality. MAGGIC was found to be an independent predictor to sustain statistically significant association with mortality in follow-up.

CONCLUSION

MAGGIC scoring system had a good predictive accuracy for early and long-term mortality in patients undergoing CABG when compared to EuroSCORE-II and STS scores. It requires limited variables for calculation and still yields better prognostic power in determining 30-day, one-year, and up to 10-year mortality.