School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin, 300387, China.
State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300350, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Aug;30(36):86463-86477. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-28578-7. Epub 2023 Jul 6.
Risk assessment is an effective means to alleviate urban flood disasters and has attracted the attention of many studies. However, most previous studies about urban flood risk assessment often focused more on urban inundation area and depth, less on the inter-relationship of the components of risk. In this study, an urban flood risk assessment approach that characterizes the relationship among the three components of risk "hazard-exposure-vulnerability" (H-E-V) is developed. Firstly, eleven flood risk indicators are selected based on the flood simulation results of urban flood model and statistical data to establish the urban flood risk assessment index system. Then, the combination of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method is employed to determine the weight of each indicator and the comprehensive urban flood risk is assessed. Most importantly, the coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) is used to reveal the relationship among H-E-V. After applying this method to Haikou city, China, the results show that the comprehensive effect and the coupling coordination degrees among H-E-V have a multidimensional impact on urban flood risk. For example, some sub-catchments, although at high risk of flooding, may experience a potential waste of resources. Urban flood assessment can be made more detailed and three-dimensional by comparing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability horizontally. Understanding and grasping the internal relationships among these three risk components can help implement flood prevention measures, optimize the allocation of flood prevention resources, and effectively reduce urban flood risks.
风险评估是缓解城市洪涝灾害的有效手段，已引起许多研究的关注。然而，以往大多数关于城市洪涝风险评估的研究往往更侧重于城市淹没区域和深度，而较少关注风险构成要素之间的相互关系。在本研究中，开发了一种城市洪涝风险评估方法，该方法可描述风险的三个构成要素“危害-暴露-脆弱性”（H-E-V）之间的关系。首先，基于城市洪涝模型的洪涝模拟结果和统计数据，选择了十一个洪涝风险指标，以建立城市洪涝风险评估指标体系。然后，采用层次分析法（AHP）和熵权法相结合的方法，确定各指标的权重，并评估综合城市洪涝风险。最重要的是，采用耦合协调度模型（CCDM）揭示 H-E-V 之间的关系。将该方法应用于中国海口市后，结果表明 H-E-V 之间的综合效应和耦合协调度对城市洪涝风险具有多维影响。例如，某些子流域尽管洪涝风险较高，但可能会造成潜在的资源浪费。通过横向比较危害、暴露和脆弱性，可以使城市洪涝评估更加详细和全面。理解和掌握这三个风险构成要素之间的内在关系，可以帮助实施防洪措施，优化防洪资源配置，有效降低城市洪涝风险。
