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一种新型的集成城市洪水风险评估方法,结合地理探测器-DEMATEL 和聚类方法。

A novel integrated Urban flood risk assessment approach coupling GeoDetector-Dematel and clustering method.

机构信息

Tianjin Key Laboratory of Soft Soil Characteristics & Engineering Environment, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin, 300384, China.

Tianjin Key Laboratory of Soft Soil Characteristics & Engineering Environment, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin, 300384, China.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2024 Mar;354:120308. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120308. Epub 2024 Feb 19.

DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120308
PMID:38377751
Abstract

Urban flood risk assessment plays a crucial role in disaster prevention and mitigation. A scientifically accurate assessment and risk stratification method are of paramount importance for effective flood risk management. This study aims to propose a comprehensive urban flood risk assessment approach by coupling GeoDetector-Dematel and Clustering Method to enhance the accuracy of urban flood risk evaluation. Based on simulation results from hydraulic models and existing literature, the research established a set of urban flood risk assessment indicators comprising 10 metrics across two dimensions: hazard factors and vulnerability factors, among which vulnerability factors include exposure factors, sensitivity factors, and adaptability factors. Subsequently, the research introduced the GeoDetector-Dematel method to determine indicator weights, significantly enhancing the scientific rigor and precision of weight calculation. Finally, the research employed the K-means clustering method to risk zonation, providing a more scientifically rational depiction of the spatial distribution of urban flood risks. This novel comprehensive urban flood risk assessment method was applied in the Fangzhuang area of Beijing. The results demonstrated that this integrated approach effectively enhances the accuracy of urban flood risk assessment. In conclusion, this research offers a new methodology for urban flood risk assessment and contributes to decision-making in disaster prevention and control measures.

摘要

城市洪水风险评估在灾害预防和减轻中起着至关重要的作用。科学准确的评估和风险分层方法对于有效的洪水风险管理至关重要。本研究旨在通过耦合地理探测器-DEMATEL 和聚类方法来提出一种全面的城市洪水风险评估方法,以提高城市洪水风险评估的准确性。基于水力学模型的模拟结果和现有文献,研究建立了一套城市洪水风险评估指标,包括 10 个指标,涵盖了两个维度:危险因子和脆弱性因子,其中脆弱性因子包括暴露因子、敏感性因子和适应性因子。随后,研究引入了地理探测器-DEMATEL 方法来确定指标权重,显著提高了权重计算的科学性和精确性。最后,研究采用 K-均值聚类方法进行风险分区,更科学合理地描述了城市洪水风险的空间分布。该综合方法应用于北京市方庄地区进行了验证。结果表明,该综合方法可以有效地提高城市洪水风险评估的准确性。总之,本研究为城市洪水风险评估提供了一种新的方法,为灾害防治措施的决策提供了参考。

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