Finn P, Bragg B W
Accid Anal Prev. 1986 Aug;18(4):289-98. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(86)90043-6.
Young drivers are significantly overrepresented among all drivers involved in traffic accidents and fatalities. Excessive risk taking by young drivers appears to be largely responsible for this disproportionate involvement. This excessive risk taking could be due to being more willing to take risks than older drivers are, failing to perceive hazardous situations as being as dangerous as older drivers do or both causes. This paper reports the results of a study which attempted to determine whether misperception of risk could be an explanation for the high rates of traffic accidents among youth by testing whether young drivers perceive driving to be less hazardous than do older drivers. Three different methods of estimating the risk of accident involvement were used to compare risk estimates of young and older drivers. The methods included general questions about accident involvement, rating the riskiness of ten specific driving situations illustrated in still photographs, and rating the riskiness of fifteen videotaped driving situations. Young drivers perceived their own chances of an accident to be significantly lower than those of both their peers and older male drivers, while older male drivers saw their chances of accident involvement as comparable to those of their male peers and less than those of young male drivers. These findings lend support to the thesis that young male drivers are overrepresented in traffic accidents at least in part because they fail to perceive specific driving situations as being as risky as older drivers perceive them.
在所有涉及交通事故和死亡的驾驶员中，年轻驾驶员的占比明显过高。年轻驾驶员过度冒险似乎在很大程度上导致了这种不成比例的情况。这种过度冒险可能是因为他们比年长驾驶员更愿意冒险，没有像年长驾驶员那样意识到危险情况的危险性，或者是这两种原因都有。本文报告了一项研究的结果，该研究试图通过测试年轻驾驶员是否比年长驾驶员认为驾车危险性更低，来确定对风险的错误认知是否可以解释年轻人交通事故发生率高的现象。使用了三种不同的方法来估计卷入事故的风险，以比较年轻驾驶员和年长驾驶员的风险估计。这些方法包括关于事故卷入情况的一般问题、对静态照片中所示的十种特定驾驶情况的风险进行评级，以及对十五个录像驾驶情况的风险进行评级。年轻驾驶员认为自己发生事故的可能性明显低于同龄人和年长男性驾驶员，而年长男性驾驶员认为自己卷入事故的可能性与男性同龄人相当，且低于年轻男性驾驶员。这些发现支持了这样一种观点，即年轻男性驾驶员在交通事故中占比过高至少部分是因为他们没有像年长驾驶员那样意识到特定驾驶情况的危险性。
