Lai Xigui, Li Conghui, Yang Yao, Niu Mingyuan, Yang Yujie, Gu Shanshan, Hou Weiqian, Chen Lili, Zhu Yi
Department of Musculoskeletal Pain Rehabilitation, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.
School of Exercise and Health, Shanghai University of Sport, Shanghai, China.
Front Oncol. 2023 Jun 29;13:1152209. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1152209. eCollection 2023.
The global cancer burden is substantial and spiraling. Although rehabilitation specialists could offer assistance, oncologic rehabilitation is still underutilized and not a routine part of clinical oncology guidelines worldwide. Global investigations of disease prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer are valuable for facilitating clinical practice improvement and health resource management. The objective of this study is to report the global estimates of rehabilitation needs and disease burden of TBL cancers from 1990 to 2019 and provide predictions for 2045.
To estimate the need for rehabilitation, the data used from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to calculate the prevalence, YLDs, and the attributable risk factors of TBL cancer. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model were established to forecast the future health burden. All analyses were done at the global level and then some in the aggregation with the seven World Bank regions. All the data were analyzed by R software (x64 version 4.2.1) and Microsoft Excel (version 2019).
Globally in 2019, 3,212,307 cases of TBL cancer (95% UI 2,937,037-3,488,346) could have benefitted from rehabilitation, contributing to 544,215 (95% UI 396,134-700,099) YLDs. Over the past 30 years, the age-standardized rate (ASR) of prevalence (EAPC = 0.51) and YLDs (EAPC = 0.03) increased. Throughout this period, the global prevalence and YLDs counts were greater in males than females. The ASR of prevalence and YLDs are projected to show a slight downward trend by 2045 on the global scale, the overall prevalence and YLDs due to TBL cancer are likely to increase further, but all indicators show a growing trend in females.
TBL cancer remains one of the major public health issues globally. According to the forecasted results, the burden of YLDs due to TBL cancer will continue to rise, and the increment is higher in females than males. A rising number of patients worldwide will benefit from rehabilitation services in the future to achieve precise control and management throughout the TBL cancer patient lifecycle.
全球癌症负担沉重且呈螺旋式上升。尽管康复专家能够提供帮助，但肿瘤康复仍未得到充分利用，并非全球临床肿瘤学指南的常规组成部分。对气管、支气管和肺癌（TBL）的疾病患病率和残疾生存年数（YLDs）进行全球调查，对于促进临床实践改进和卫生资源管理具有重要价值。本研究的目的是报告1990年至2019年全球TBL癌症康复需求和疾病负担的估计情况，并提供2045年的预测。
为了估计康复需求，使用了《2019年全球疾病负担研究》的数据来计算TBL癌症的患病率、YLDs以及可归因风险因素。建立了贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型和自回归积分滑动平均模型来预测未来的健康负担。所有分析均在全球层面进行，然后对世界银行的七个地区进行汇总分析。所有数据均通过R软件（x64版本4.2.1）和Microsoft Excel（2019版本）进行分析。
2019年全球范围内，3212307例TBL癌症患者（95%不确定区间为2937037 - 3488346例）本可从康复中受益，导致544215例（95%不确定区间为396134 - 700099例）YLDs。在过去30年中，患病率的年龄标准化率（ASR）（年变化百分比[EAPC] = 0.51）和YLDs（EAPC = 0.03）有所上升。在此期间，全球范围内男性的患病率和YLDs计数均高于女性。预计到2045年，全球范围内患病率和YLDs的ASR将呈轻微下降趋势，但TBL癌症导致的总体患病率和YLDs可能会进一步增加，不过所有指标在女性中均呈上升趋势。
TBL癌症仍然是全球主要的公共卫生问题之一。根据预测结果，TBL癌症导致的YLDs负担将继续上升，且女性的增幅高于男性。未来全球将有越来越多的患者受益于康复服务，以在TBL癌症患者的整个生命周期内实现精准控制和管理。
