Liu Jiacheng
Central South University, Changsha, Hunan China, Changsha, Hunan, China.
Dialogues Health. 2024 May 21;4:100182. doi: 10.1016/j.dialog.2024.100182. eCollection 2024 Jun.
Lymphoma is a dissimilar collection of malignant neoplasms arising from the clonal propagation of lymphocytes. It is conventionally classified into two categories: Hodgkin lymphoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal patterns in the incidence of lymphoma worldwide over the past few decades and forecast the future trends from 2020 to 2044. Data on HL and NHL were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. In an effort to estimate the incidence rate trend, the Joinpoint regression analysis model was exploited. What's more, to project the disease burden by 2044, the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was employed. In 2019, higher incidence rates were observed in males and the elderly for both subtypes. Over the last three decades, a significant decline in the age-standardized incidence rate of HL was observed, while NHL has shown an increasing trend. By 2044, the age-standardized incidence rate of HL is anticipated to decrease in males and increase in females, while that of NHL is expected to rise. This study presents a new assessment of the spatiotemporal distributions of lymphoma. Significant emphasis should be placed on the effective management and long-term monitoring of patients to mitigate the potential future impact of the disease.
淋巴瘤是一组由淋巴细胞克隆增殖引起的恶性肿瘤。传统上分为两类:霍奇金淋巴瘤和非霍奇金淋巴瘤。本研究的目的是分析过去几十年全球淋巴瘤发病率的时间模式,并预测2020年至2044年的未来趋势。霍奇金淋巴瘤和非霍奇金淋巴瘤的数据来自《2019年全球疾病负担研究》。为了估计发病率趋势,采用了Joinpoint回归分析模型。此外,为了预测到2044年的疾病负担,采用了贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析。2019年,两种亚型在男性和老年人中的发病率均较高。在过去三十年中,霍奇金淋巴瘤的年龄标准化发病率显著下降,而非霍奇金淋巴瘤呈上升趋势。到2044年,预计霍奇金淋巴瘤的年龄标准化发病率在男性中会下降,在女性中会上升,而非霍奇金淋巴瘤预计会上升。本研究对淋巴瘤的时空分布进行了新的评估。应高度重视对患者的有效管理和长期监测,以减轻该疾病未来可能产生的影响。