China Academy of Transportation Sciences, Beijing, China.
School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China.
PLoS One. 2023 Jul 19;18(7):e0288510. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288510. eCollection 2023.
The COVID-19 had a huge impact on the transportation industry. In the post-epidemic stage, intercity transportation will face great challenges as places are unsealed, tourism and other service industries begin to recover, and residents' travel demand gradually increases. An in-depth study of residents' intercity travel behavior during holidays in the post-epidemic era will help restore public trust in public transportation and improve the quality of public transportation services. Based on traditional research on ways of travelling, the study adopted the Complex Network Analysis Theory. The city clusters of Shandong Peninsula were taken as the research region. The research studied the impact of the differences in regional attributes of the cities in Shandong Peninsula on residents' intercity travel in the post-epidemic times. A dynamic evolution model of how residents choose to travel was built to simulate the changes to their ways of traveling in the post-epidemic era under two conditions, which are: traveling under the government's supervision of intercity travel and traveling under the government's optimization of intercity travel conditions. The conclusions drawn from the analyses of Complex Network Theory and Evolutionary Game Theory are as follows. First, in the holiday intercity travel in the post-epidemic times, the neighboring cities of Shandong Peninsula are closely connected, thus traveling between neighboring cities dominates intercity travel. Second, the travel network concentration of residents on long-term holidays is lower than that on short-term holidays, and the migration intensity of residents is higher than that on short-term holidays, while the willingness of residents' migration on short-term holidays is higher than that on long-term holidays. The willingness to migrate on holidays is generally lower than that before the epidemic. Third, in a normal intercity travel network, the travel between two cities with medium and long distances is mainly by public transport. However, the dominance of public transport will be affected under the impact of the epidemic. In short-distance travel between two cities, private transport is in an advantageous position, and under the impact of the epidemic, this advantage will become more significant. The government can improve the position of public transport in short-distance travel by making optimizations.
新冠疫情对交通运输业造成了巨大影响。在后疫情时代，随着各地解封、旅游等服务业开始复苏以及居民出行需求逐渐增加，城际交通将面临巨大挑战。深入研究后疫情时代居民节假日城际出行行为，有助于恢复公众对公共交通的信任，提高公共交通服务质量。本研究基于传统出行方式研究，采用复杂网络分析理论，以山东半岛城市群为研究区域，研究了山东半岛城市间地域属性差异对居民后疫情时代城际出行的影响，构建了居民选择出行方式的动态演化模型，模拟了政府监督和优化城际出行条件两种情景下，后疫情时代居民出行方式的变化。通过复杂网络理论和演化博弈理论的分析得出以下结论：第一，后疫情时代节假日城际出行中，山东半岛城市群内相邻城市联系紧密，以邻城出行为主；第二，长假期居民出行网络集中程度低于短假期，居民迁移强度高于短假期，而短假期居民出行意愿高于长假期，居民出行意愿普遍低于疫情前；第三，在正常城际出行网络中，中长途城市间出行以公共交通为主，但疫情会影响公共交通的主导地位。在城市间短距离出行中，私人交通处于有利地位，而疫情会使这种优势更加明显。政府可以通过优化措施提高公共交通在短距离出行中的地位。
