School of Economics and Management, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, People's Republic of China.
West China Economic Development Research Center, Northwest University, Xi'an, 710127, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Aug;30(39):91173-91188. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-28866-2. Epub 2023 Jul 20.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a crucial component of sustainable economic development and an indicator of the next wave of technological progress. This study examines the effects and mechanisms of AI on the intensity of pollution emissions, using China as an example. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that the scale expansion effect and the technological innovation effect of AI can reduce the intensity of pollution emissions. In the meantime, AI can have a positive structural influence on reducing the intensity of pollution emissions through the upgrading of industrial structures. Therefore, we use panel data for 30 Chinese provinces from 2006 to 2019 to test the effect of AI on pollution emission intensity using a fixed effects model, employ explanatory variable substitution, endogenous analysis, regression after tailing, and eliminate related policy interference for robustness analysis. The results indicate that AI can significantly decrease the intensity of pollution emissions, with a 6.63% reduction for every 10% increase in AI utilization. We use the mediating effect model to conclude that AI can reduce the intensity of pollution emissions via the rationalization of industrial structure and advanced industrial structure, with the rationalization of industrial structure being the main mechanism. The examination of heterogeneity revealed that the implementation of AI in technology-intensive industries is an effective method for reducing the intensity of pollution emissions and that the positive impact of AI on the intensity of pollution emissions is more pronounced in the western region.
人工智能（AI）是可持续经济发展的关键组成部分，也是下一波技术进步的指标。本研究以中国为例，考察了人工智能对污染排放强度的影响及其作用机制。理论分析表明，人工智能的规模扩张效应和技术创新效应可以降低污染排放强度。同时，人工智能可以通过产业结构升级对降低污染排放强度产生积极的结构影响。因此，我们使用 2006 年至 2019 年中国 30 个省份的面板数据，采用固定效应模型检验 AI 对污染排放强度的影响，使用解释变量替代、内生性分析、尾部回归和消除相关政策干扰进行稳健性分析。结果表明，AI 可以显著降低污染排放强度，AI 利用率每增加 10%，污染排放强度就会降低 6.63%。我们使用中介效应模型得出结论，人工智能可以通过产业结构合理化和先进产业结构来降低污染排放强度，其中产业结构合理化是主要机制。异质性检验表明，在技术密集型产业中实施 AI 是降低污染排放强度的有效方法，而且人工智能对污染排放强度的积极影响在西部地区更为明显。
