Jebeile Julie, Lam Vincent, Majszak Mason, Räz Tim
Institute of Philosophy, University of Bern, Länggassstrasse 49a, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Hochschulstrasse 6, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
Clim Change. 2023;176(8):101. doi: 10.1007/s10584-023-03532-1. Epub 2023 Jul 18.
Parameterization and parameter tuning are central aspects of climate modeling, and there is widespread consensus that these procedures involve certain subjective elements. Even if the use of these subjective elements is not necessarily epistemically problematic, there is an intuitive appeal for replacing them with more objective (automated) methods, such as machine learning. Relying on several case studies, we argue that, while machine learning techniques may help to improve climate model parameterization in several ways, they still require expert judgment that involves subjective elements not so different from the ones arising in standard parameterization and tuning. The use of machine learning in parameterizations is an art as well as a science and requires careful supervision.
参数化和参数调整是气候建模的核心方面,并且人们普遍认为这些过程涉及某些主观因素。即使使用这些主观因素不一定存在认知问题,但用更客观(自动化)的方法(如机器学习)来取代它们仍具有直观的吸引力。基于多个案例研究,我们认为,虽然机器学习技术可能在几个方面有助于改进气候模型参数化,但它们仍然需要专家判断,而这种判断涉及的主观因素与标准参数化和调整中出现的主观因素并无太大差异。在参数化中使用机器学习既是一门科学也是一门艺术,需要仔细监督。