Wang Tingting, Sun Fubao
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Nov 20;900:165591. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165591. Epub 2023 Jul 19.
The dynamic interplay between climate change and socioeconomic development has brought about significant changes in drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk within the global socioeconomic system. However, there is a prevailing lack of understanding about how these changes will manifest in an increasingly globalized economy under global warming. To address this knowledge gap, this study utilizes various climatic, geographical, and socioeconomic data from historical period and future projections to comprehensively map and assess the changes in global drought vulnerability and risk of population in the 2030s and 2050s under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios. This study finds that the future population at risk of drought is projected to increase by 21.96 % - 25.95 % in the 2030s and 36.64 % - 45.40 % in the 2050s, driven by rapid population growth and substantial changes in drought hazard and vulnerability. This includes varying increases in drought hazard in approximately 58 % of global land area, alongside decreases in drought vulnerability in 50 % - 80 % of global land areas. Most arid and semi-arid regions, including Africa, Central Asia, West Asia, and Australia with less developed economies, are more susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change, leading to significant increases in future drought hazards, vulnerability, and risk, particularly under higher emission scenarios. In contrast, most humid and semi-humid regions exhibit varying degrees of drought vulnerability and risk of population across regions, despite the overall increasing drought hazard, with disproportionate impact of climate change and socioeconomic development. Specifically, projected increases in drought vulnerability and risk are observed in the Amazon, central and western U.S., while decreases are projected in the eastern part of China delimited by the Hu Line, southern India, Japan, Korea, most of Southeast Asia, northern Europe, and South America excluding the Amazon. The eastern U.S. is expected to experience reduced vulnerability but increased drought risk. This study can assist decision makers to develop targeted strategies and measures of adaptation and mitigation in an increasingly globalized economy under global warming.
气候变化与社会经济发展之间的动态相互作用，已给全球社会经济系统中的干旱危险、脆弱性和风险带来了重大变化。然而，对于在全球变暖背景下，这些变化在日益全球化的经济中会如何显现，人们普遍缺乏了解。为填补这一知识空白，本研究利用历史时期及未来预测的各种气候、地理和社会经济数据，全面绘制并评估了在SSP126、SSP245和SSP585情景下，2030年代和2050年代全球干旱脆弱性及人口风险的变化。本研究发现，受人口快速增长以及干旱危险和脆弱性的大幅变化影响，预计到2030年代，未来面临干旱风险的人口将增加21.96% - 25.95%，到2050年代将增加36.64% - 45.40%。这包括全球约58%的陆地面积干旱危险程度不同程度增加，同时全球50% - 80%的陆地面积干旱脆弱性降低。大多数干旱和半干旱地区，包括经济欠发达的非洲、中亚、西亚和澳大利亚，更容易受到气候变化的不利影响，导致未来干旱危险、脆弱性和风险显著增加，尤其是在高排放情景下。相比之下，大多数湿润和半湿润地区尽管干旱危险总体增加，但各地区人口的干旱脆弱性和风险程度各不相同，气候变化和社会经济发展的影响不均衡。具体而言，预计亚马逊地区、美国中部和西部的干旱脆弱性和风险将会增加，而在中国东部以胡焕庸线为界的地区、印度南部、日本、韩国、东南亚大部分地区、北欧以及除亚马逊地区之外的南美洲，干旱脆弱性和风险预计将会降低。预计美国东部的脆弱性将会降低，但干旱风险将会增加。本研究可协助决策者在全球变暖背景下日益全球化的经济中制定有针对性的适应和减缓战略及措施。
