Diaz Megan C, Donovan Emily, Tauras John, Stephens Daniel, Schillo Barbara, Phillips Serena, Chaloupka Frank J, Pesko Michael
Schroeder Institute, Truth Initiative, Washington, DC, USA
Schroeder Institute, Truth Initiative, Washington, DC, USA.
Tob Control. 2025 Jan 2;34(1):34-40. doi: 10.1136/tc-2022-057743.
To use a standardised e-cigarette tax measure to examine the impact of e-cigarette taxes on the price and sales of e-cigarettes and cigarettes in the USA.
We used State Line versions of NielsenIQ Retail Scanner data from quarter 4 of 2014 through quarter 4 of 2019 to calculate e-cigarette and cigarette prices and sales in 23 US states. We then estimated how these outcomes are associated with standardised state-level e-cigarette taxes, controlling for state fixed effects, quarter-by-year fixed effects, cigarette taxes, other tobacco control policies and other state-level time-varying characteristics.
A real $1 increase in the e-cigarette standardised tax increases the price of 1 mL of e-liquid between $0.43 and $0.59 depending on specification. Controlling for fixed effects and cigarette taxes, a 10% increase in e-cigarette taxes is estimated to reduce e-cigarette sales by 0.5% and increase cigarette sales by 0.1%, though both results are attenuated and statistically insignificant in a model with full controls.
Our study finds that e-cigarette taxes increase e-cigarette retail prices by approximately half of the tax. Further, e-cigarette taxes are associated with reduced sales of e-cigarettes and increased sales of cigarettes in some specifications. Our estimates are sizably lower than from other studies using sales and survey data.
运用标准化的电子烟税收措施，研究电子烟税对美国电子烟及卷烟价格与销量的影响。
我们使用了尼尔森IQ零售扫描数据的州界版本，数据涵盖2014年第四季度至2019年第四季度，以计算美国23个州的电子烟和卷烟价格及销量。然后，我们估计这些结果与标准化的州级电子烟税之间的关联，同时控制州固定效应、逐年季度固定效应、卷烟税、其他烟草控制政策以及其他州级随时间变化的特征。
电子烟标准化税收实际每增加1美元，根据不同设定，1毫升电子烟液的价格会上涨0.43美元至0.59美元。在控制固定效应和卷烟税的情况下，估计电子烟税提高10%会使电子烟销量减少0.5%，卷烟销量增加0.1%，不过在包含全部控制变量的模型中，这两个结果均有所减弱且在统计上不显著。
我们的研究发现，电子烟税使电子烟零售价格提高了约一半的税额。此外，在某些设定中，电子烟税与电子烟销量减少以及卷烟销量增加有关。我们的估计结果比其他使用销售和调查数据的研究结果要低得多。
