Guo Jianlong, Wu Lifeng, Mu Yali
College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
Research Center for Economics and Trade in Forest Products of the State Forestry Administration (SINO-RCETFOR), Nanjing, 210037, China.
Heliyon. 2023 Jun 8;9(6):e17037. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17037. eCollection 2023 Jun.
The large amount of the non-renewable energy consumption in China brings certain challenges to the realization of carbon neutrality. This paper proposes a new grey model to predict the consumption of non-renewable energy in China. Based on the traditional grey model, the proposed model introduces two parameters to adjust the weight of information. Simultaneously, the intelligent optimization algorithm determines the optimal parameters. Three cases verify the feasibility of the model. The forecast results show that the amount of oil and natural gas consumption will continue to grow at a faster rate. By 2026, the amount of oil consumption will exceed 37 EJ (EJ) and natural gas consumption will exceed 22 EJ. Compared to 2021, oil consumption is up nearly 24%, and natural gas consumption is up more than 60%. While the consumption of coal will maintain a small up rate and gradually be leveled off.
中国大量的不可再生能源消耗给实现碳中和带来了一定挑战。本文提出一种新的灰色模型来预测中国不可再生能源的消费量。该模型在传统灰色模型的基础上，引入两个参数来调整信息权重。同时，通过智能优化算法确定最优参数。通过三个案例验证了该模型的可行性。预测结果表明，石油和天然气消费量将继续以较快速度增长。到2026年，石油消费量将超过37亿吉焦（EJ），天然气消费量将超过22亿吉焦。与2021年相比，石油消费量增长近24%，天然气消费量增长超过60%。而煤炭消费量将保持较小的增长率并逐渐趋于平稳。
