School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, 266580, China; School of Economics and Management, Xinjiang University, Wulumuqi, 830046, China.
School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, 266580, China.
Environ Res. 2023 Mar 15;221:115290. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.115290. Epub 2023 Jan 13.
Nuclear power has received renewed attention during the energy transition in recent years. This study is aimed to explore whether nuclear energy can promote economic growth without increasing carbon emissions. In order to have a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between nuclear energy, economic growth, and carbon emissions, this study also discusses the impact of coal, oil, natural gas, and renewable energy on economic growth and carbon emissions. The second-generation panel unit root test, panel cointegration test, panel fully modified ordinary least squares, and Heterogeneous Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality test were used to estimate the long-term elasticity and causality among variables. Results based on panel data from 24 countries with nuclear energy from 2001 to 2020 show that both nuclear energy and renewable energy can curb carbon emissions. Especially in Canada, Finland, Russia, Slovenia, South Korea, and The United Kingdom, nuclear energy reduces carbon emissions more significantly than renewable energy. Meanwhile, there is a positive relationship between increased nuclear energy, increased renewable energy, and economic growth, which means that nuclear energy and renewable energy could increase economic growth as well. There is a positive relationship between increased oil, increased natural gas, and economic growth, while there is a negative relationship between the increase in coal and economic growth. Meanwhile, there is a positive relationship between increased oil, increased coal, and increased carbon emissions, while the positive relationship between increased natural gas and increased carbon emissions is not significant. Thus, in the 22 countries with nuclear power, increased coal consumption does not drive economic growth but increases carbon emissions. Increased oil consumption increases economic growth, but it increases carbon emissions. Increased natural gas consumption boosts economic growth but adds little to carbon emissions. In the authors' view, nuclear power and renewable energy are all options for these nuclear-power countries to pursue economic growth without increasing carbon emissions. Moreover, nuclear power has a better effect on curbing carbon emissions in some countries than renewable energy. Therefore, under the premise of safety, nuclear power should be seriously considered and re-developed.
核能在近年来的能源转型中重新受到关注。本研究旨在探讨核能是否可以在不增加碳排放的情况下促进经济增长。为了更全面地了解核能、经济增长和碳排放之间的关系,本研究还讨论了煤炭、石油、天然气和可再生能源对经济增长和碳排放的影响。本文采用第二代面板单位根检验、面板协整检验、面板全修正最小二乘法和 Heterogeneous Dumitrescu 和 Hurlin 因果检验来估计变量之间的长期弹性和因果关系。结果基于 2001 年至 2020 年拥有核能的 24 个国家的面板数据显示,核能和可再生能源都可以抑制碳排放。特别是在加拿大、芬兰、俄罗斯、斯洛文尼亚、韩国和英国,核能对碳排放的减排效果比可再生能源更为显著。同时,核能和可再生能源的增加与经济增长之间存在正相关关系,这意味着核能和可再生能源也可以促进经济增长。石油和天然气的增加与经济增长之间存在正相关关系,而煤炭的增加与经济增长之间则存在负相关关系。同时,石油和煤炭的增加与碳排放的增加之间存在正相关关系,而天然气的增加与碳排放的增加之间的正相关关系并不显著。因此,在拥有核电的 22 个国家中,煤炭消费的增加不会推动经济增长,反而会增加碳排放。石油消费的增加会促进经济增长,但会增加碳排放。天然气消费的增加会促进经济增长,但对碳排放的增加影响不大。在作者看来,核能和可再生能源都是这些核电国家在不增加碳排放的情况下追求经济增长的选择。此外,在一些国家,核能对抑制碳排放的效果优于可再生能源。因此,在安全的前提下,应认真考虑并重新开发核能。