Department of Mathematics, University of Malakand, Chakadara Dir (Lower), 18800, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
Department of Mathematics and Computer Sciences, Faculty of Science, Necmettin Erbakan University, 42090 Konya, Türkiye.
Math Biosci Eng. 2023 May 9;20(7):11847-11874. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023527.
Since the outbreak of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012 in the Middle East, we have proposed a deterministic theoretical model to understand its transmission between individuals and MERS-CoV reservoirs such as camels. We aim to calculate the basic reproduction number ($ \mathcal{R}{0} $) of the model to examine its airborne transmission. By applying stability theory, we can analyze and visualize the local and global features of the model to determine its stability. We also study the sensitivity of $ \mathcal{R}{0} $ to determine the impact of each parameter on the transmission of the disease. Our model is designed with optimal control in mind to minimize the number of infected individuals while keeping intervention costs low. The model includes time-dependent control variables such as supportive care, the use of surgical masks, government campaigns promoting the importance of masks, and treatment. To support our analytical work, we present numerical simulation results for the proposed model.
自 2012 年中东地区爆发中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒（MERS-CoV）以来，我们提出了一个确定性理论模型，以了解人与人之间以及 MERS-CoV 储主（如骆驼）之间的传播。我们旨在计算模型的基本繁殖数（$ \mathcal{R}{0} $），以检查其空气传播。通过应用稳定性理论，我们可以分析和可视化模型的局部和全局特征，以确定其稳定性。我们还研究了 $ \mathcal{R}{0} $ 的敏感性，以确定每个参数对疾病传播的影响。我们的模型旨在通过优化控制来最小化感染人数，同时保持干预成本低。该模型包括时间相关的控制变量，如支持性护理、使用手术口罩、政府开展宣传口罩重要性的运动以及治疗。为了支持我们的分析工作，我们还为所提出的模型呈现了数值模拟结果。
