Institute of Forest Growth and Forest Computer Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Sachsen, Germany.
Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Sachsen, Germany.
PLoS One. 2023 Jul 28;18(7):e0286036. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0286036. eCollection 2023.
Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) is a key species of the Southern Ocean, impacted by climate change and human exploitation. Understanding how these changes affect the distribution and abundance of krill is crucial for generating projections of change for Southern Ocean ecosystems. Krill growth is an important indicator of habitat suitability and a series of models have been developed and used to examine krill growth potential at different spatial and temporal scales. The available models have been developed using a range of empirical and mechanistic approaches, providing alternative perspectives and comparative analyses of the key processes influencing krill growth. Here we undertake an intercomparison of a suite of the available models to understand their sensitivities to major driving variables. This illustrates that the results are strongly determined by the model structure and technical characteristics, and the data on which they were developed and validated. Our results emphasize the importance of assessing the constraints and requirements of individual krill growth models to ensure their appropriate application. The study also demonstrates the value of the development of alternative modelling approaches to identify key processes affecting the dynamics of krill. Of critical importance for modelling the growth of krill is appropriately assessing and accounting for differences in estimates of food availability resulting from alternative methods of observation. We suggest that an intercomparison approach is particularly valuable in the development and application of models for the assessment of krill growth potential at circumpolar scales and for future projections. As another result of the intercomparison, the implementations of the models used in this study are now publicly available for future use and analyses.
南极磷虾（Euphausia superba）是南大洋的关键物种，受到气候变化和人类开发的影响。了解这些变化如何影响磷虾的分布和丰度，对于预测南大洋生态系统的变化至关重要。磷虾的生长是栖息地适宜性的重要指标，已经开发并使用了一系列模型来检查不同时空尺度下磷虾的生长潜力。现有的模型是使用一系列经验和机制方法开发的，为影响磷虾生长的关键过程提供了替代视角和比较分析。在这里，我们对一系列现有模型进行了比较，以了解它们对主要驱动变量的敏感性。这表明结果强烈取决于模型结构和技术特征，以及它们开发和验证所依据的数据。我们的结果强调了评估单个磷虾生长模型的约束和要求的重要性，以确保其适当应用。该研究还展示了开发替代建模方法来确定影响磷虾动态的关键过程的价值。对于磷虾生长的建模，至关重要的是适当评估和考虑由于替代观测方法而导致的食物供应估计差异。我们建议，对于评估环极尺度磷虾生长潜力和未来预测，比较方法在模型的开发和应用中特别有价值。作为比较的另一个结果，本研究中使用的模型的实现现在可供将来使用和分析。
