Li Jia, Xue Yadong, Hacker Charlotte E, Zhang Yu, Li Ye, Cong Wei, Jin Lixiao, Li Gang, Wu Bo, Li Diqiang, Zhang Yuguang
Institute of Desertification Studies Chinese Academy of Forestry Beijing China.
Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection Chinese Academy of Forestry Beijing China.
Ecol Evol. 2021 Nov 18;11(23):17202-17218. doi: 10.1002/ece3.8358. eCollection 2021 Dec.
Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt model) to assess potential changes in suitable snow leopard () habitat in Qinghai Province, China, under a mild climate change scenario. Our results showed that the area of suitable snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province was 302,821 km under current conditions and 228,997 km under the 2050s climatic scenario, with a mean upward shift in elevation of 90 m. At present, nature reserves protect 38.78% of currently suitable habitat and will protect 42.56% of future suitable habitat. Current areas of climate refugia amounted to 212,341 km and are mainly distributed in the Sanjiangyuan region, Qilian mountains, and surrounding areas. Our results provide valuable information for formulating strategies to meet future conservation challenges brought on by climate stress. We suggest that conservation efforts in Qinghai Province should focus on protecting areas of climate refugia and on maintaining or building corridors when planning for future species management.
评估物种对气候变化的脆弱性是制定有效策略以减少新出现的气候相关威胁的先决条件。我们使用最大熵算法（MaxEnt模型）来评估在中国青海省温和气候变化情景下，雪豹（）适宜栖息地的潜在变化。我们的结果表明，青海省雪豹适宜栖息地的面积在当前条件下为302,821平方千米，在2050年代气候情景下为228,997平方千米，海拔平均上升90米。目前，自然保护区保护了当前适宜栖息地的38.78%，并将保护未来适宜栖息地的42.56%。当前气候避难所的面积达212,341平方千米，主要分布在三江源地区、祁连山及周边地区。我们的结果为制定应对气候压力带来的未来保护挑战的策略提供了有价值的信息。我们建议，青海省的保护工作应侧重于保护气候避难所区域，并在规划未来物种管理时侧重于维护或建立廊道。
