Shi Ruiqing, Zhang Yihong, Wang Cuihong
School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan 030031, China.
Animals (Basel). 2023 Jul 9;13(14):2252. doi: 10.3390/ani13142252.
African swine fever is a highly contagious virus that causes pig disease. Its onset process is short, but the mortality rate is as high as 100%. There are still no effective drugs that have been developed to treat African swine fever, and prevention and control measures are currently the best means to avoid infection in pig herds. In this paper, two fractional order mathematical models with media coverage are constructed to describe the transmission of African swine fever. The first model is a basic model with media coverage, and no control measures are considered. For this model, the reproduction number is obtained by using the next generation matrix method. Then, the sufficient conditions for the existence and stability of two equilibriums are obtained. Based on the first model, the second model is established incorporating two control measures. By using Pontryagin's maximal principle, the optimal control solution is derived. After that, some numerical simulations are performed for the two models to verify the theoretical results. Both the qualitative analysis and numerical results indicate that timely media coverage combined with disinfection control measures is crucial to preventing the spread of disease.
非洲猪瘟是一种引发猪病的高度传染性病毒。其发病过程短暂,但死亡率高达100%。目前仍未研发出有效的治疗非洲猪瘟的药物,防控措施是当前避免猪群感染的最佳手段。本文构建了两个包含媒体报道的分数阶数学模型来描述非洲猪瘟的传播。第一个模型是一个包含媒体报道的基础模型,未考虑控制措施。对于该模型,通过下一代矩阵法获得再生数。然后,得到了两个平衡点存在和稳定的充分条件。基于第一个模型,建立了包含两种控制措施的第二个模型。利用庞特里亚金极大值原理推导出最优控制解。之后,对这两个模型进行了一些数值模拟以验证理论结果。定性分析和数值结果均表明,及时的媒体报道与消毒控制措施相结合对于防止疾病传播至关重要。