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新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情初期实时病死率的新分析

A New Analysis of Real-Time Fatality Rate in the Initial Stage of COVID-19.

作者信息

Zhou Chuanbo, Fang Jiaohong, Mao Mingzhi

机构信息

School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.

出版信息

Entropy (Basel). 2023 Jul 6;25(7):1028. doi: 10.3390/e25071028.


DOI:10.3390/e25071028
PMID:37509975
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10378078/
Abstract

Mortality is one of the most important epidemiological measures and a key indicator of the effectiveness of potential treatments or interventions. In this paper, a permutation test method of variance analysis is proposed to test the null hypothesis that the real-time fatality rates of multiple groups were equal during the epidemic period. In light of large-scale simulation studies, the proposed test method can accurately identify the differences between different groups and display satisfactory performance. We apply the proposed method to the real dataset of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China (excluding Hubei), Hubei Province (excluding Wuhan), and Wuhan from 31 January 2020 to 30 March 2020. By comparing the differences in the disease severity for differential cities, we show that the severity of the early disease of COVID-19 may be related to the effectiveness of interventions and the improvement in medical resources.

摘要

死亡率是最重要的流行病学指标之一,也是衡量潜在治疗方法或干预措施有效性的关键指标。本文提出了一种方差分析的排列检验方法,以检验疫情期间多组实时死亡率相等的原假设。根据大规模模拟研究,所提出的检验方法能够准确识别不同组之间的差异,并表现出令人满意的性能。我们将所提出的方法应用于2020年1月31日至2020年3月30日中国大陆(不包括湖北)、湖北省(不包括武汉)和武汉的新冠肺炎疫情真实数据集。通过比较不同城市疾病严重程度的差异,我们表明新冠肺炎早期疾病的严重程度可能与干预措施的有效性和医疗资源的改善有关。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/10de/10378078/f6b2f32dec71/entropy-25-01028-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/10de/10378078/07f6e03ff898/entropy-25-01028-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/10de/10378078/c0876cb12ff4/entropy-25-01028-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/10de/10378078/dd8ec4397891/entropy-25-01028-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/10de/10378078/716dd55eea8d/entropy-25-01028-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/10de/10378078/f6b2f32dec71/entropy-25-01028-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/10de/10378078/07f6e03ff898/entropy-25-01028-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/10de/10378078/c0876cb12ff4/entropy-25-01028-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/10de/10378078/dd8ec4397891/entropy-25-01028-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/10de/10378078/716dd55eea8d/entropy-25-01028-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/10de/10378078/f6b2f32dec71/entropy-25-01028-g005.jpg

相似文献

[1]
A New Analysis of Real-Time Fatality Rate in the Initial Stage of COVID-19.

Entropy (Basel). 2023-7-6

[2]
A sequential test to compare the real-time fatality rates of a disease among multiple groups with an application to COVID-19 data.

Stat Methods Med Res. 2022-2

[3]
Ecological Study on Differences in COVID-19 Fatality among Wuhan, Rest of Hubei, and Rest of China.

J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2021-3

[4]
Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province.

Infect Dis Poverty. 2020-8-24

[5]
Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis.

Ann Transl Med. 2020-2

[6]
Spatiotemporal Differences of COVID-19 Infection Among Healthcare Workers and Patients in China From January to March 2020.

IEEE Access. 2021-2-9

[7]
The value of discharged case fatality rate in estimating the severity and epidemic trend of COVID-19 in China: a novel epidemiological study.

Z Gesundh Wiss. 2023-4-3

[8]
[Epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Chinese mainland].

Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2020-6-6

[9]
The spatial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in China under the prevention and control measures at the early outbreak.

Arch Public Health. 2021-1-13

[10]
Enhancing COVID-19 Epidemic Forecasting Accuracy by Combining Real-time and Historical Data From Multiple Internet-Based Sources: Analysis of Social Media Data, Online News Articles, and Search Queries.

JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2022-6-16

本文引用的文献

[1]
Dialysis Patient Experiences During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Survey Study.

Kidney Med. 2023-7

[2]
A sequential test to compare the real-time fatality rates of a disease among multiple groups with an application to COVID-19 data.

Stat Methods Med Res. 2022-2

[3]
The COVID-19-designated hospitals in China: preparing for public health emergencies.

Emerg Microbes Infect. 2021-12

[4]
Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy.

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021-9

[5]
Time series analysis of COVID-19 infection curve: A change-point perspective.

J Econom. 2023-1

[6]
"Pairing assistance": the effective way to solve the breakdown of health services system caused by COVID-19 pandemic.

Int J Equity Health. 2020-5-15

[7]
A comparison study of realtime fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, China.

J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc. 2005-1

[8]
Clinical characteristics of non-critically ill patients with novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in a Fangcang Hospital.

Clin Microbiol Infect. 2020-4-3

[9]
The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China.

Science. 2020-3-25

[10]
Estimating absolute and relative case fatality ratios from infectious disease surveillance data.

Biometrics. 2012-6

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