Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Nature. 2023 Aug;620(7972):97-103. doi: 10.1038/s41586-023-06176-4. Epub 2023 Aug 2.
Earth system models and various climate proxy sources indicate global warming is unprecedented during at least the Common Era. However, tree-ring proxies often estimate temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 CE) that are similar to, or exceed, those recorded for the past century, in contrast to simulation experiments at regional scales. This not only calls into question the reliability of models and proxies but also contributes to uncertainty in future climate projections. Here we show that the current climate of the Fennoscandian Peninsula is substantially warmer than that of the medieval period. This highlights the dominant role of anthropogenic forcing in climate warming even at the regional scale, thereby reconciling inconsistencies between reconstructions and model simulations. We used an annually resolved 1,170-year-long tree-ring record that relies exclusively on tracheid anatomical measurements from Pinus sylvestris trees, providing high-fidelity measurements of instrumental temperature variability during the warm season. We therefore call for the construction of more such millennia-long records to further improve our understanding and reduce uncertainties around historical and future climate change at inter-regional and eventually global scales.
地球系统模型和各种气候代用资料来源表明,至少在整个现代时期,全球变暖是前所未有的。然而,树木年轮代用资料通常估计中世纪气候异常(公元 950 年至 1250 年)期间的温度与过去一个世纪记录的温度相似,甚至更高,而这与区域尺度的模拟实验形成对比。这不仅对模型和代用资料的可靠性提出了质疑,也增加了对未来气候预测的不确定性。在这里,我们表明,与中世纪时期相比,现今的北欧地区的气候要温暖得多。这凸显了人为强迫在气候变暖中的主导作用,即使在区域尺度上也是如此,从而调和了重建结果与模型模拟之间的不一致性。我们使用了一个分辨率为 1170 年的年轮记录,该记录完全依赖于欧洲赤松树木的管胞解剖学测量值,为温暖季节仪器测量的温度变化提供了高保真度的测量值。因此,我们呼吁构建更多这样的千年长记录,以进一步提高我们对跨区域和最终全球尺度的历史和未来气候变化的理解,并减少不确定性。