Abortion Bans and Resource Utilization for Congenital Heart Disease: A Decision Analysis.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the implications of potential national abortion ban scenarios on the incidence of neonatal single-ventricle cardiac defects.

METHODS

A decision tree model was developed to predict the incidence of neonatal single-ventricle cardiac defects and related outcomes in the United States under four theoretical national abortion bans: 1) abortion restrictions in existence immediately before the June 2022 Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization Supreme Court decision, 2) 20 weeks of gestation, 3) 13 weeks of gestation, and 4) a complete abortion ban. The model included incidence of live births of neonates with single-ventricle cardiac defects, neonatal heart surgery (including heart transplant and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [ECMO]), and neonatal death. Cohort size was based on national pregnancy incidence and different algorithm decision point probabilities were aggregated from the existing literature. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted with 10,000 iterations per model.

RESULTS

In the scenario before the Dobbs decision, an estimated 6,369,000 annual pregnancies in the United States resulted in 1,006 annual cases of single-ventricle cardiac defects. Under a complete abortion ban, the model predicted a 53.7% increase in single-ventricle cardiac defects, or an additional 9 cases per 100,000 live births. This increase would result in an additional 531 neonatal heart surgeries, 16 heart transplants, 77 ECMO utilizations, and 102 neonatal deaths annually. More restrictive gestational age-based bans are predicted to confer increases in cases of neonatal single-ventricle cardiac defects and related adverse outcomes as well.

CONCLUSION

Universal abortion bans are estimated to increase the incidence of neonatal single-ventricle cardiac defects, associated morbidity, and resource utilization. States considering limiting abortion should consider the implications on the resources required to care for increasing number of children that will be born with significant and complex medical needs, including those with congenital heart disease.