School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400030, China.
School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400030, China.
Environ Res. 2023 Nov 1;236(Pt 2):116836. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116836. Epub 2023 Aug 4.
Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly threatening interpersonal violence, yet global evidence for related impacts and potential transmission mechanisms remains limited. We examine whether and how climate change, particularly climate extremes, affects interpersonal violence. Using the panel data of 140 countries and regions from 2000 to 2019, we find that hot and wet extremes precipitated increase in homicide rates globally. Economic level, inequality, and resources scarcity were important intermediaries through which climate extremes affected homicide, while the direct effects still dominated the total effects. We then reveal the heterogeneous effects of climate extremes, further suggesting that poor countries and regions with relatively small contributions to climate change were particularly sensitive to climate extremes. These findings elucidate a strong climate-violence link, helping explain implications of facilitating violence prevention and mitigating climate change.
人为气候变化日益威胁人际暴力，但全球有关影响和潜在传播机制的证据仍然有限。我们研究气候变化，特别是气候极端事件，是否以及如何影响人际暴力。利用 2000 年至 2019 年 140 个国家和地区的面板数据，我们发现炎热和潮湿的极端天气会导致全球凶杀率上升。经济水平、不平等和资源短缺是气候极端事件影响凶杀案的重要中介因素，而直接影响仍然占据总影响的主导地位。我们进一步揭示了气候极端事件的异质效应，这表明对气候变化贡献相对较小的贫穷国家和地区特别容易受到气候极端事件的影响。这些发现阐明了气候变化与暴力之间的紧密联系，有助于解释促进暴力预防和减缓气候变化的意义。
