The Pacific Northwest Harmful Algal Blooms Bulletin.

A bulletin communicating risk of toxic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms to shellfish harvest along the open coast of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (the northeast Pacific Ocean spanning Washington and Oregon) is discussed. This Pacific Northwest Harmful Algal Blooms (PNW HAB) Bulletin is designed for shellfish managers with a focus on the razor clam fishery, but may also be informative to managers of the Dungeness crab fishery since domoic acid accumulation in crabs tends to lag accumulation in razor clams by a couple of weeks. The Bulletin complements beach phytoplankton monitoring programs by alerting coastal shellfish managers about adverse environmental conditions that could be conducive to a toxic Pseudo-nitzschia bloom. Beach monitoring programs are effective at determining when toxins have arrived at shellfish beaches, but a risk forecast based on near real-time biophysical information can provide managers with additional forewarning about potential future toxin outbreaks. Here, the approaches taken in constructing the risk forecasts, along with the reasoning and research behind them are presented. Updates to a historical PNW HAB Bulletin are described, as are the current workflow and the individual components of the updated Bulletin. Some successes and failures realized throughout the process are also pointed out for the benefit of the broader community. A self-assessment suggests that when the necessary data sources are available, the PNW HAB Bulletin provides an accurate forecast of risk associated with toxic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms. The Bulletin has proven beneficial to coastal shellfish managers by better informing decisions on sample collection, and harvest limits, openings, extensions, and closures.