Vásquez Váleri N, Kueppers Lara M, Rašić Gordana, Marshall John M
Berkeley, CA USA Energy and Resources Group, University of California.
Berkeley, CA USA Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences, College of Engineering, University of California.
Nat Clim Chang. 2023;13(8):848-855. doi: 10.1038/s41558-023-01746-w. Epub 2023 Aug 3.
Rising temperatures are impacting the range and prevalence of mosquito-borne diseases. A promising biocontrol technology replaces wild mosquitoes with those carrying the virus-blocking bacterium. Because the most widely used strain, Mel, is adversely affected by heat stress, we examined how global warming may influence Mel-based replacement. We simulated interventions in two locations with successful field trials using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections and historical temperature records, integrating empirical data on Mel's thermal sensitivity into a model of population dynamics to evaluate introgression and persistence over one year. We show that in Cairns, Australia, climatic futures necessitate operational adaptations for heatwaves exceeding two weeks. In Nha Trang, Vietnam, projected heatwaves of three weeks and longer eliminate Mel under the most stringent assumptions of that symbiont's thermal limits. We conclude that this technology is generally robust to near-term (2030s) climate change. Accelerated warming may challenge this in the 2050s and beyond.
气温上升正在影响蚊媒疾病的分布范围和流行程度。一种很有前景的生物防治技术用携带能阻断病毒的细菌的蚊子取代野生蚊子。由于最广泛使用的菌株Mel受到热应激的不利影响，我们研究了全球变暖可能如何影响基于Mel的替代方案。我们使用耦合模式比较计划第五阶段的气候预测和历史温度记录，在两个已成功进行田间试验的地点模拟干预措施，将Mel对热敏感性的实证数据整合到种群动态模型中，以评估一年内的基因渗入和持久性。我们表明，在澳大利亚凯恩斯，未来气候要求针对持续两周以上的热浪进行操作调整。在越南芽庄，在该共生体热极限的最严格假设下，预计持续三周及更长时间的热浪会使Mel灭绝。我们得出结论，这项技术总体上对近期（2030年代）气候变化具有抗性。加速变暖可能在2050年代及以后对其构成挑战。
