Borg Matthew A, Xiang Jianjun, Anikeeva Olga, Ostendorf Bertram, Varghese Blesson, Dear Keith, Pisaniello Dino, Hansen Alana, Zander Kerstin, Sim Malcolm R, Bi Peng
School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, 50 Rundle Mall, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia.
School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, 50 Rundle Mall, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia; School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, 1 Xue Yuan Road, Minhou Campus, Fuzhou, Fujian Province, 350122, China.
Environ Res. 2023 Nov 1;236(Pt 2):116852. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116852. Epub 2023 Aug 7.
The costs of global warming are substantial. These include expenses from occupational illnesses and injuries (OIIs), which have been associated with increases during heatwaves. This study estimated retrospective and projected future heatwave-attributable OIIs and their costs in Australia.
Climate and workers' compensation claims data were extracted from seven Australian capital cities representing OIIs from July 2005 to June 2018. Heatwaves were defined using the Excess Heat Factor. OIIs and associated costs were estimated separately per city and pooled to derive national estimates. Results were projected to 2030 (2016-2045) and 2050 (2036-2065).
The risk of OIIs and associated costs increased during heatwaves, with the risk increasing during severe and particularly extreme heatwaves. Of all OIIs, 0.13% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 0.11-0.16%) were heatwave-attributable, equivalent to 120 (95%eCI:70-181) OIIs annually. 0.25% of costs were heatwave-attributable (95%eCI: 0.18-0.34%), equal to $AU4.3 (95%eCI: 1.4-7.4) million annually. Estimates of heatwave-attributable OIIs by 2050, under Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP]4.5 and RCP8.5, were 0.17% (95%eCI: 0.10-0.27%) and 0.23% (95%eCI: 0.13-0.37%), respectively. National costs estimates for 2030 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were 0.13% (95%eCI: 0.27-0.46%) and 0.04% (95%eCI: 0.66-0.60), respectively. These estimates for extreme heatwaves were 0.04% (95%eCI: 0.02-0.06%) and 0.04% (95%eCI: 0.01-0.07), respectively. Cost-AFs in 2050 were, under RCP4.5, 0.127% (95%eCI: 0.27-0.46) for all heatwaves and 0.04% (95%eCI: 0.01-0.09%) for extreme heatwaves. Attributable fractions were approximately similar to baseline when assuming theoretical climate adaptation.
Heatwaves represent notable and preventable portions of preventable OIIs and economic burden. OIIs are likely to increase in the future, and costs during extreme heatwaves in 2030. Workplace and public health policies aimed at heat adaptation can reduce heat-attributable morbidity and costs.
全球变暖的代价巨大。这些代价包括职业疾病和伤害（OIIs）带来的费用，而这些与热浪期间此类事件的增加有关。本研究估算了澳大利亚可归因于热浪的既往和未来职业疾病和伤害及其成本。
从澳大利亚七个首府城市提取了2005年7月至2018年6月期间代表职业疾病和伤害的气候数据及工人赔偿索赔数据。使用过热因子定义热浪。分别估算每个城市可归因于热浪的职业疾病和伤害及其相关成本，并汇总得出全国估算值。结果预测至2030年（2016 - 2045年）和2050年（2036 - 2065年）。
热浪期间职业疾病和伤害的风险及相关成本增加，在严重热浪尤其是极端热浪期间风险上升。在所有职业疾病和伤害中，0.13%（95%经验置信区间[eCI]：0.11 - 0.16%）可归因于热浪，相当于每年120例（95%eCI：70 - 181例）职业疾病和伤害。0.25%的成本可归因于热浪（95%eCI：0.18 - 0.34%），相当于每年430万澳元（95%eCI：140 - 740万澳元）。在代表性浓度路径[RCP]4.5和RCP8.5情景下，到2050年可归因于热浪的职业疾病和伤害估算值分别为0.17%（95%eCI：0.10 - 0.27%）和0.23%（95%eCI：0.13 - 0.37%）。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，2030年的全国成本估算值分别为0.13%（95%eCI：0.27 - 0.46%）和0.04%（95%eCI：0.66 - 0.60）。极端热浪的这些估算值分别为0.04%（95%eCI：0.02 - 0.06%）和0.04%（95%eCI：0.01 - 0.07）。在RCP4.5情景下，2050年所有热浪的成本归因分数为0.127%（95%eCI：0.27 - 0.46），极端热浪为0.04%（95%eCI：0.01 - 0.09%）。假设进行理论气候适应时，归因分数与基线大致相似。
热浪占可预防的职业疾病和伤害及经济负担中显著且可预防的部分。未来职业疾病和伤害可能会增加，2030年极端热浪期间的成本也会增加。旨在适应高温的工作场所和公共卫生政策可降低因热浪导致的发病率和成本。
