Campbell Sharon L, Remenyi Tomas, Johnston Fay H
Menzies Institute for Medical Research University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia.
Public Health Services Department of Health (Tasmania) Hobart TAS Australia.
Geohealth. 2023 Oct 6;7(10):e2023GH000914. doi: 10.1029/2023GH000914. eCollection 2023 Oct.
Anthropogenic climate change is causing a rise in global temperatures, with this trend projected to increase into the future. Rising temperatures result in an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwave events, with an associated increase in poor health outcomes for vulnerable individuals. This places an increasing strain on health care services. However, methods calculating future health care costs associated with this trend are poorly understood. We calculated health care costs attributable to heatwave events in Tasmania 2009-2019, using ambulance dispatches as a case study. We also modeled the expected health and economic burden for projected heatwave frequencies between 2010 and 2089. We developed our models based on two possible approaches to describing population adaptation to heatwaves-an adapted population calculated by determining heatwave episodes using a rolling baseline, and a non-adapted population calculated by determining heatwave episodes using a static baseline. Using a rolling baseline calculation for 2010 to 2089, we estimated additional ambulance costs averaging AUD$57,147 per year and totaling AUD$4,571,788. For the same period using a static baseline, we estimated additional ambulance costs averaging AUD$517,342 per year and totaling AUD$41,387,349. While this method is suitable for estimating the health care costs associated with heatwaves, it could be utilized for estimating health care costs related to other climate-related extreme events. Different methods of estimating heatwaves, modeling an adapted versus non-adapted population, provide substantial differences in projected costs. There is potential for considerable health system cost savings when a population is supported to adapt to extreme heat.
人为气候变化正在导致全球气温上升，预计这一趋势在未来还会加剧。气温上升导致热浪事件的频率和严重程度增加，弱势群体的健康状况也随之恶化。这给医疗服务带来了越来越大的压力。然而，人们对计算与这一趋势相关的未来医疗成本的方法知之甚少。我们以救护车调度为例，计算了2009年至2019年塔斯马尼亚热浪事件造成的医疗成本。我们还对2010年至2089年预计热浪频率的预期健康和经济负担进行了建模。我们基于两种描述人群对热浪适应情况的可能方法开发了模型——一种是通过使用滚动基线确定热浪事件来计算适应人群，另一种是通过使用静态基线确定热浪事件来计算未适应人群。使用2010年至2089年的滚动基线计算，我们估计每年额外的救护车成本平均为57,147澳元，总计4,571,788澳元。在同一时期使用静态基线，我们估计每年额外的救护车成本平均为517,342澳元，总计41,387,349澳元。虽然这种方法适用于估算与热浪相关的医疗成本，但也可用于估算与其他气候相关极端事件相关的医疗成本。不同的热浪估算方法，对适应人群和未适应人群进行建模，在预计成本上会有很大差异。当人群得到支持以适应极端高温时，医疗系统有很大的成本节约潜力。
