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欧洲人对不同背景难民的支持是稳定的,随着时间的推移而保持不变。

Europeans' support for refugees of varying background is stable over time.

机构信息

Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.

Immigration Policy Lab, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

出版信息

Nature. 2023 Aug;620(7975):849-854. doi: 10.1038/s41586-023-06417-6. Epub 2023 Aug 9.

Abstract

Protracted global conflicts during the past decade have led to repeated major humanitarian protection crises in Europe. During the height of the Syrian refugee crisis at the end of 2015, Europe hosted around 2.3 million people requesting asylum. Today, the ongoing war in Ukraine has resulted in one of the largest humanitarian emergencies in Europe since World War II, with more than eight million Ukrainians seeking refuge across Europe. Here we explore whether repeated humanitarian crises threaten to exhaust solidarity and whether Europeans welcome Ukrainian asylum seekers over other asylum seekers. We conducted repeat conjoint experiments during the 2015-2016 and 2022 refugee crises, asking 33,000 citizens in 15 European countries to evaluate randomly varied profiles of asylum seekers. We find that public preferences for asylum seekers with specific attributes have remained remarkably stable and general support has, if anything, increased slightly over time. Ukrainian asylum seekers were welcomed in 2022, with their demographic, religious and displacement profile having a larger role than their nationality. Yet, this welcome did not come at the expense of support for other marginalized refugee groups, such as Muslim refugees. These findings have implications for our theoretical understanding of the drivers and resilience of public attitudes towards refugees and for policymakers tasked to find effective responses to the enduring stress on the asylum system.

摘要

过去十年中,全球范围的持久冲突导致欧洲多次出现重大的人道主义保护危机。在 2015 年末叙利亚难民危机最严重的时候,欧洲接纳了约 230 万人申请避难。如今,乌克兰持续的战争导致了自二战以来欧洲最大的人道主义紧急情况之一,超过 800 万乌克兰人在欧洲各地寻求庇护。在这里,我们探讨了反复出现的人道主义危机是否有可能耗尽团结,以及欧洲人是否欢迎乌克兰寻求庇护者超过其他寻求庇护者。我们在 2015-2016 年和 2022 年难民危机期间进行了重复的联合实验,询问了 15 个欧洲国家的 33000 名公民,评估了寻求庇护者的随机变化的个人资料。我们发现,公众对具有特定属性的寻求庇护者的偏好一直非常稳定,而且总的来说,支持率随着时间的推移略有增加。2022 年,乌克兰寻求庇护者受到欢迎,他们的人口统计、宗教和流离失所情况比国籍更重要。然而,这种欢迎并没有以牺牲对其他边缘化难民群体(如穆斯林难民)的支持为代价。这些发现对我们理解公众对难民的态度的驱动因素和弹性的理论认识以及对负责寻找有效应对庇护制度持续压力的政策制定者具有重要意义。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c767/10447233/35383d2f1cec/41586_2023_6417_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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