Krawczyk Michal, Blasco Andrea, Gajderowicz Tomasz, Giergiczny Marek
Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Brussels, Belgium.
Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Poland.
Eur J Polit Econ. 2024 Dec;85:None. doi: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102601.
Millions of people were forced to flee Ukraine after Russia's invasion on February 24, 2022, one of the fastest displacements in decades. Citizens' response in EU countries (where most displaced Ukrainians arrived) has been considerably more positive than in past refugee crises. This study investigates several possible drivers of this difference. We conduct a large conjoint experiment in six EU Member States, eliciting willingness to provide temporary protection to hypothetical groups of future migrants whose characteristics we manipulate systematically. We find that all of the experimental variables make a difference. We observe a greater support for protecting groups consisting of relatively many children and many women rather than men. The region of origin and the religious affiliation play a major role. Finally, we see greater support for people fleeing a war rather than poverty or the adverse consequences of climate change. While all these effects are identified consistently across different groups of respondents (e.g., the respondent's religion played a limited role), effect sizes vary considerably between countries. Finally, we randomly manipulate which aspect of temporary protection (social housing, access to the labour market) is emphasised in our communication to the participants. We find this manipulation to have a limited effect on the public support for the policy.
2022年2月24日俄罗斯入侵后，数百万人被迫逃离乌克兰，这是数十年来最快的一次人口流离失所事件。欧盟国家（大多数流离失所的乌克兰人抵达的地方）公民的反应比过去的难民危机要积极得多。本研究调查了造成这种差异的几个可能因素。我们在六个欧盟成员国进行了一项大型联合实验，了解对假设的未来移民群体提供临时保护的意愿，我们系统地操纵了这些群体的特征。我们发现所有实验变量都有影响。我们观察到，相较于男性，人们更支持保护由较多儿童和较多女性组成的群体。原籍地区和宗教信仰起着主要作用。最后，我们发现人们更支持逃离战争的人，而非因贫困或气候变化的不利影响而逃离的人。虽然在不同的受访者群体中一致发现了所有这些影响（例如，受访者的宗教信仰作用有限），但各国之间的效应大小差异很大。最后，我们随机操纵在与参与者沟通中强调临时保护的哪个方面（社会住房、进入劳动力市场的机会）。我们发现这种操纵对公众对该政策的支持影响有限。
