Department of Economics and Organization of Food Economy, Wroclaw University of Economics and Business, Komandorska Street 118/120, 53-345, Wrocław, Poland.
Department of Process Management, Wroclaw University of Economics and Business, Komandorska Street 118/120, 53-345, Wrocław, Poland.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Sep;30(42):95945-95958. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-29093-5. Epub 2023 Aug 10.
The article presents original, probabilistic models for the quantification of drought risk, based on generalized distribution functions for the distribution of maximum values as well as the standardized precipitation index. Using the models, a probabilistic measurement of drought risk has been made for three regions over four 5-year periods for each region. Three measurement points located in Poland were selected as a case study. The study provides an innovative approach in the field of probabilistic models of quantification; moreover, drought risk levels have been calculated for the selected locations. Furthermore, the method may be used for creating indexes for any climatic region subject to study.
本文提出了基于最大值分布广义分布函数和标准化降水指数的干旱风险量化的概率模型。使用这些模型，对三个地区的四个 5 年期间的干旱风险进行了概率测量。选择了波兰的三个测量点作为案例研究。该研究为量化概率模型领域提供了一种创新方法；此外，还为选定地点计算了干旱风险水平。此外，该方法可用于为任何受研究影响的气候区域创建指数。
