Pluvial flood adaptation using nature-based solutions: An integrated biophysical-economic assessment.

Globally, flood events are considered the costliest natural hazard. Changes in precipitation patterns and large areas of impervious surfaces in urban environments are increasing the sensitivity of these systems to runoff production. At the same time, projected global sea-level rise may further increase the frequency of compound flooding due to simultaneous storm surge, sea-level rise and pluvial runoff that cause vast socio-economic and ecological impacts to coastal cities. In this context, over the last decade, the role of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) has been recognised to support climate change adaptation by addressing ideas of multi-functionality, non-linearity and heterogeneity in urban design. Thus, increasing awareness about NBS benefits increases the willingness to accept these solutions. However, empirical evidence of NBS effectiveness at the urban catchment scale is still subject to debate. This study develops a spatial biophysical-economic framework that allows for the integrated assessment of NBS flood risk mitigation impacts, costs and benefits in the face of climate change, combining the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, benefit transfer methods and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. Specifically, the InVEST Urban Flood Risk Mitigation model was used to assess the biophysical impacts of NBS on urban pluvial flood risk, benefit-transfer methods were used to evaluate the economic implications of such solutions, and GIS was used to integrate and map biophysical impacts and economic implications. For the case of the coastal lagoon city of Aveiro (Portugal), NBS scenarios of green roofs and bioswales under current and future climate conditions were assessed. The main findings of this study show that green roofs scenarios would save 32 % of the flood damages to buildings and infrastructures every year, while bioswales help save only 0.1 %. Moreover, green roofs implementation provides larger benefits in the future climate scenario (representative concentration pathway - RCP - 4.5). The findings confirm the extent to which knowledge on NBS benefits and costs is partial and uncertain, thus requiring constant progress through biophysical-economic assessment to support an evolutive decision making process in climate adaptation planning.