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利用人类移动地理定位大数据的数字接触追踪和网络理论来阻止 COVID-19 的传播。

Digital contact tracing and network theory to stop the spread of COVID-19 using big-data on human mobility geolocalization.

机构信息

Levich Institute and Physics Department, City College of New York, New York, New York, United States of America.

IMT School for Advanced Studies, Lucca, Italy.

出版信息

PLoS Comput Biol. 2022 Apr 11;18(4):e1009865. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009865. eCollection 2022 Apr.

Abstract

The spread of COVID-19 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has become a worldwide problem with devastating consequences. Here, we implement a comprehensive contact tracing and network analysis to find an optimized quarantine protocol to dismantle the chain of transmission of coronavirus with minimal disruptions to society. We track billions of anonymized GPS human mobility datapoints to monitor the evolution of the contact network of disease transmission before and after mass quarantines. As a consequence of the lockdowns, people's mobility decreases by 53%, which results in a drastic disintegration of the transmission network by 90%. However, this disintegration did not halt the spreading of the disease. Our analysis indicates that superspreading k-core structures persist in the transmission network to prolong the pandemic. Once the k-cores are identified, an optimized strategy to break the chain of transmission is to quarantine a minimal number of 'weak links' with high betweenness centrality connecting the large k-cores.

摘要

由 SARS-CoV-2 病毒引起的 COVID-19 疫情已经成为一个全球性问题,造成了毁灭性的后果。在这里,我们实施了全面的接触者追踪和网络分析,以找到一种优化的隔离协议,在对社会造成最小干扰的情况下打破冠状病毒的传播链。我们跟踪了数十亿匿名的 GPS 人类移动数据点,以监测大规模隔离前后疾病传播接触网络的演变。由于封锁,人们的流动性减少了 53%,这导致传播网络急剧瓦解了 90%。然而,这种瓦解并没有阻止疾病的传播。我们的分析表明,超级传播 k-核结构在传播网络中持续存在,从而延长了大流行时间。一旦确定了 k-核,打破传播链的优化策略是隔离少数具有高介数中心度的“弱连接”,这些连接将大的 k-核连接起来。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/dc29/9053778/55838949b072/pcbi.1009865.g001.jpg

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