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基于粒度计算的时间序列数据预测与分析

Prediction and analysis of time series data based on granular computing.

作者信息

Yin Yushan

机构信息

School of Electro-Mechanical Engineering, Xidian University, Xi'an, China.

出版信息

Front Comput Neurosci. 2023 Jul 27;17:1192876. doi: 10.3389/fncom.2023.1192876. eCollection 2023.

Abstract

The advent of the Big Data era and the rapid development of the Internet of Things have led to a dramatic increase in the amount of data from various time series. How to classify, correlation rule mining and prediction of these large-sample time series data has a crucial role. However, due to the characteristics of high dimensionality, large data volume and transmission lag of sensor data, large sample time series data are affected by multiple factors and have complex characteristics such as multi-scale, non-linearity and burstiness. Traditional time series prediction methods are no longer applicable to the study of large sample time series data. Granular computing has unique advantages in dealing with continuous and complex data, and can compensate for the limitations of traditional support vector machines in dealing with large sample data. Therefore, this paper proposes to combine granular computing theory with support vector machines to achieve large-sample time series data prediction. Firstly, the definition of time series is analyzed, and the basic principles of traditional time series forecasting methods and granular computing are investigated. Secondly, in terms of predicting the trend of data changes, it is proposed to apply the fuzzy granulation algorithm to first convert the sample data into coarser granules. Then, it is combined with a support vector machine to predict the range of change of continuous time series data over a period of time. The results of the simulation experiments show that the proposed model is able to make accurate predictions of the range of data changes in future time periods. Compared with other prediction models, the proposed model reduces the complexity of the samples and improves the prediction accuracy.

摘要

大数据时代的到来和物联网的快速发展导致来自各种时间序列的数据量急剧增加。如何对这些大样本时间序列数据进行分类、关联规则挖掘和预测具有至关重要的作用。然而,由于传感器数据具有高维性、大数据量和传输滞后等特点,大样本时间序列数据受到多种因素影响,具有多尺度、非线性和突发性等复杂特性。传统的时间序列预测方法已不再适用于大样本时间序列数据的研究。粒度计算在处理连续和复杂数据方面具有独特优势,能够弥补传统支持向量机在处理大样本数据时的局限性。因此,本文提出将粒度计算理论与支持向量机相结合以实现大样本时间序列数据预测。首先,分析时间序列的定义,研究传统时间序列预测方法和粒度计算的基本原理。其次,在预测数据变化趋势方面,提出应用模糊粒化算法先将样本数据转换为更粗的粒度。然后,将其与支持向量机相结合,预测连续时间序列数据在一段时间内的变化范围。仿真实验结果表明,所提出的模型能够对未来时间段内的数据变化范围做出准确预测。与其他预测模型相比,所提出的模型降低了样本的复杂性,提高了预测精度。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/73fd/10413556/045ba45a6455/fncom-17-1192876-g001.jpg

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