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1951 年至 2019 年中国高温、热浪的时空特征及人口分布风险。

Temporal and spatial characteristics of high temperatures, heat waves, and population distribution risk in China from 1951 to 2019.

机构信息

School of Resources and Environment, Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou, 450046, China.

Academician Laboratory for Urban and Rural Spatial Data Mining of Henan Province, Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou, 450046, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Sep;30(42):96629-96646. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-28955-2. Epub 2023 Aug 14.

DOI:10.1007/s11356-023-28955-2
PMID:37578588
Abstract

Understanding the relationships between high temperatures (HT) and heat waves (HW) is vital for enhancing human health, especially in areas with dense population. This paper analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of different HT and HW intensities, their spatial influence, and the population distribution risk at different HW intensities for 844 meteorological stations between 1951 and 2019. The results indicate that (1) HT and extreme temperature (ET) days are symmetrically distributed along the Huhuanyong Line, from southeast to northwest China. The times, days, and accumulated temperatures of HW, the times, days, and accumulated temperature of strong heat waves (SHW), and the times, days, and accumulated temperature of extreme heat waves (EHW) were distributed similarly; (2) with the increase in high temperatures or heat waves from HT to ET or from HW to SHW, the proportion of stations with an upward trend was always greater in China, while stations with a downward trend were mainly located in the North China Plain and Huai River Basin. For HW, SHW, and EHW, the increasing range of times and days were less than the accumulated temperatures; (3) between 1990 and 2019, there was an expansion of the HW and SHW distribution area with an annual average of more than 10 days, and the EHW distribution area with an annual average of more than 3 days. Moreover, the number of people exposed to HW, SHW, and EHW also increased during this period; and (4) considering the population distribution characteristics and the regional HT and HW characteristics, society needs to form regional adaptation actions for different HT and HW intensities.

摘要

理解高温(HT)和热浪(HW)之间的关系对于增强人类健康至关重要,特别是在人口密集的地区。本文分析了 1951 年至 2019 年间 844 个气象站不同 HT 和 HW 强度的时间和空间特征、空间影响以及不同 HW 强度下的人口分布风险。结果表明:(1)HT 和极端温度(ET)天数沿胡焕庸线呈对称分布,从中国东南向西北。HW、强热浪(SHW)的出现次数、天数和累积温度以及极端热浪(EHW)的出现次数、天数和累积温度的分布相似;(2)随着高温或热浪从 HT 到 ET 或从 HW 到 SHW 的增加,中国的上升趋势站比例始终较大,而下降趋势站主要位于华北平原和淮河流域。对于 HW、SHW 和 EHW,次数和天数的增加范围小于累积温度;(3)1990 年至 2019 年间,HW 和 SHW 分布面积以每年超过 10 天的速度扩张,EHW 分布面积以每年超过 3 天的速度扩张。此外,在此期间,暴露于 HW、SHW 和 EHW 的人数也有所增加;(4)考虑到人口分布特征和区域 HT 和 HW 特征,社会需要针对不同的 HT 和 HW 强度制定区域适应措施。

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