Shen Lu, Jacob Daniel J, Gautam Ritesh, Omara Mark, Scarpelli Tia R, Lorente Alba, Zavala-Araiza Daniel, Lu Xiao, Chen Zichong, Lin Jintai
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China.
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA.
Nat Commun. 2023 Aug 16;14(1):4948. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-40671-6.
Reducing methane emissions from fossil fuel exploitation (oil, gas, coal) is an important target for climate policy, but current national emission inventories submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are highly uncertain. Here we use 22 months (May 2018-Feb 2020) of satellite observations from the TROPOMI instrument to better quantify national emissions worldwide by inverse analysis at up to 50 km resolution. We find global emissions of 62.7 ± 11.5 (2σ) Tg a for oil-gas and 32.7 ± 5.2 Tg a for coal. Oil-gas emissions are 30% higher than the global total from UNFCCC reports, mainly due to under-reporting by the four largest emitters including the US, Russia, Venezuela, and Turkmenistan. Eight countries have methane emission intensities from the oil-gas sector exceeding 5% of their gas production (20% for Venezuela, Iraq, and Angola), and lowering these intensities to the global average level of 2.4% would reduce global oil-gas emissions by 11 Tg a or 18%.
减少化石燃料开采（石油、天然气、煤炭）过程中的甲烷排放是气候政策的一个重要目标，但目前提交给《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）的国家排放清单存在很大的不确定性。在此，我们利用TROPOMI仪器22个月（2018年5月至2020年2月）的卫星观测数据，通过高达50公里分辨率的反演分析，更好地量化全球各国的排放量。我们发现，油气的全球排放量为62.7±11.5（2σ）Tg a，煤炭的全球排放量为32.7±5.2 Tg a。油气排放量比UNFCCC报告中的全球总量高出30%，主要原因是包括美国、俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和土库曼斯坦在内的四个最大排放国报告不足。八个国家油气行业的甲烷排放强度超过其天然气产量的5%（委内瑞拉、伊拉克和安哥拉为20%），将这些强度降至全球平均水平2.4%将使全球油气排放量减少11 Tg a或18%。
