Jarvis Brandon M, Pauer James J, Melendez Wilson, Wan Yongshan, Lehrter John C, Lowe Lisa L, Simmons Cody W
US EPA, Office of Research and Development, 1 Sabine Island Drive, Gulf Breeze, FL 32561, USA.
United States Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, 2000 Traverwood Dr. #C59, Ann Arbor, MI, 48105, USA.
Environ Model Softw. 2022 May 1;151:1-14. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105365.
Complex simulation models are a valuable tool to inform nutrient management decisions aimed at reducing hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico, yet simulated hypoxia response to reduced nutrients varies greatly between models. We compared two biogeochemical models driven by the same hydrodynamics, the Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model (CGEM) and Gulf of Mexico Dissolved Oxygen Model (GoMDOM), to investigate how they differ in simulating hypoxia and their response to reduced nutrients. Different phytoplankton nutrient kinetics produced 2-3 times more hypoxic area and volume on the western shelf in CGEM compared to GoMDOM. Reductions in hypoxic area were greatest in the western shelf, comprising 72% (~4,200 km) of the total shelfwide hypoxia response. The range of hypoxia responses from multiple models suggests a 60% load reduction may result in a 33% reduction in hypoxic area, leaving an annual hypoxic area of ~9,000 km based on the latest 5-yr average (13,928 km).
复杂的模拟模型是一种有价值的工具，可用于为旨在减少墨西哥湾北部缺氧现象的养分管理决策提供信息，但不同模型模拟的缺氧现象对养分减少的反应差异很大。我们比较了由相同水动力驱动的两个生物地球化学模型，即海岸广义生态系统模型（CGEM）和墨西哥湾溶解氧模型（GoMDOM），以研究它们在模拟缺氧现象以及对养分减少的反应方面有何不同。与GoMDOM相比，不同的浮游植物养分动力学在CGEM中使西部陆架上的缺氧面积和体积多出2至3倍。缺氧面积减少幅度最大的是西部陆架，占整个陆架缺氧反应总量的72%（约4200公里）。多个模型的缺氧反应范围表明，负荷减少60%可能会使缺氧面积减少33%，根据最近5年的平均水平（13928平方公里），留下约9000平方公里的年度缺氧面积。
