Kyritsis Thanos, Matthews Luke J, Welch David, Atkinson Quentin D
School of Psychology, University of Auckland, New Zealand.
RAND Corporation, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Evol Hum Sci. 2022 Sep 19;4:e42. doi: 10.1017/ehs.2022.40. eCollection 2022.
Understanding global variation in democratic outcomes is critical to efforts to promote and sustain democracy today. Here, we use data on the democratic status of 221 modern and historical nations stretching back up to 200 years to show that, particularly over the last 50 years, nations with shared linguistic and, more recently, religious ancestry have more similar democratic outcomes. We also find evidence that for most of the last 50 years the democratic trajectory of a nation can be predicted by the democratic status of its linguistic and, less clearly, religious relatives, years and even decades earlier. These results are broadly consistent across three democracy indicators (Polity 5, Vanhanen's Index of Democracy, and Freedom in the World) and are not explained by geographical proximity or current shared language or religion. Our findings suggest that deep cultural ancestry remains an important force shaping the fortunes of modern nations, at least in part because democratic norms, institutions, and the factors that support them are more likely to diffuse between close cultural relatives.
理解民主成果的全球差异对于当今促进和维持民主的努力至关重要。在此，我们使用了关于221个现代和历史国家民主状况的数据，这些数据可追溯到200年前，结果表明，尤其是在过去50年里，拥有共同语言以及（最近）宗教渊源的国家，其民主成果更为相似。我们还发现，在过去50年的大部分时间里，一个国家的民主轨迹可以通过其语言相关国家以及（不太明显的）宗教相关国家多年甚至数十年前的民主状况来预测。这些结果在三个民主指标（政体5、万哈宁民主指数和《世界自由报告》）中大致一致，并且无法用地理距离或当前共同语言或宗教来解释。我们的研究结果表明，深厚的文化渊源仍然是塑造现代国家命运的重要力量，至少部分原因在于民主规范、制度以及支持它们的因素更有可能在文化亲缘关系密切的国家之间传播。
