Yang Yao, Xu Mengzhen, Chen Xingyu, Zhang Jiahao, Wang Shulei, Zhu Jianying, Fu Xudong
State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
China South-to-north Water Diversion Corporation Limited, China.
Environ Sci Ecotechnol. 2023 Jul 24;17:100305. doi: 10.1016/j.ese.2023.100305. eCollection 2024 Jan.
Inter-basin water diversion projects have led to accelerated colonization of aquatic organisms, including the freshwater golden mussel (), exacerbating global biofouling concerns. While the influence of environmental factors on the mussel's invasion and biofouling impact has been studied, quantitative correlations and underlying mechanisms remain unclear, particularly in large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects with diverse hydrodynamic and environmental conditions. Here, we examine the comprehensive impact of environmental variables on the establishment risk of the golden mussel in China's 1432-km-long Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Logistic regression and multiclass classification models were used to investigate the environmental influence on the occurrence probability and reproductive density of the golden mussel. Total nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, water temperature, pH, and velocity were identified as crucial environmental variables affecting the biofouling risk in the project. Logistic regression analysis revealed a negative correlation between the occurrence probability of all larval stages and levels of total nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen. The multiclass classification model showed that elevated levels of total nitrogen hindered mussel reproduction, while optimal water temperature enhanced their reproductive capacity. Appropriate velocity and pH levels were crucial in maintaining moderate larval density. This research presents a quantitative analytical framework for assessing establishment risks associated with invasive mussels, and the framework is expected to enhance invasion management and mitigate biofouling issues in water diversion projects worldwide.
跨流域调水工程加速了包括淡水金贻贝在内的水生生物的定殖，加剧了全球生物污损问题。虽然已经研究了环境因素对贻贝入侵和生物污损影响，但定量相关性和潜在机制仍不清楚，特别是在具有不同水动力和环境条件的大型跨流域调水工程中。在此，我们研究了环境变量对中国1432公里长的南水北调中线工程中淡水金贻贝定殖风险的综合影响。使用逻辑回归和多类分类模型来研究环境对淡水金贻贝出现概率和繁殖密度的影响。总氮、氨氮、水温、pH值和流速被确定为影响该工程生物污损风险的关键环境变量。逻辑回归分析表明，所有幼体阶段的出现概率与总氮和氨氮水平呈负相关。多类分类模型表明，总氮水平升高会阻碍贻贝繁殖，而适宜的水温会提高它们的繁殖能力。适宜的流速和pH值水平对于维持适度的幼体密度至关重要。本研究提出了一个评估入侵贻贝定殖风险的定量分析框架，预计该框架将加强入侵管理并减轻全球调水工程中的生物污损问题。
