Han Dong, Chen Liang, Wu Hao, Wang Xinyuan, Xiao Yi, Yang Haonan, Liu Shiyu, Xu Shuangshuang, Huang Huan, Chang Ming
College of Management Science, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, 610059, Sichuan, China.
Geomathematics Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, 610059, Sichuan, China.
Sci Rep. 2023 Aug 18;13(1):13459. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-40352-w.
Using the CRITIC method, comprehensive index evaluation method, VAR model, coupling coordination model and other methods, this paper evaluates the comprehensive development of the population economy and eco-geological environment composite system in the twin-city economic circle of Chengdu-Chongqing region from 2000 to 2020, verifies the dynamic coupling relationship between subsystems and measures the coupling coordination degree of complex system. Meanwhile, the differences in the development process of each subsystem are discussed and the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and laws of coupling coordination of the composite system during the research period are analyzed. The results reveal the following: (1) There is a long-term coordinated relationship between population, economy and eco-geological environment in Chengdu-Chongqing region, which have the conditions for emergence and generation. (2) The subsystems of population, economy and eco-geological environment in Chengdu-Chongqing region show an overall upward trend, among which the Sichuan part obviously outperforms the Chongqing part. Besides, the growth rate of the economy subsystem is significantly higher than that of the population, eco-geological environment subsystem. (3) The coupling coordinated development of the composite system has shown a benign upward development trend, gradually changing from "composite spiral structure" to "two cores outstanding, peripheral collapse, the west superior to the east", while the main coordination state has developed from "Basic synergy-Economic lag" in 2000 to "Basic synergy-Population lag" in 2022. In addition, Cheng-De-Mian and Yuzhong districts with the better level of economic development have shown "Advanced synergy-Ecological lag".
本文运用CRITIC法、综合指数评价法、VAR模型、耦合协调模型等方法，对2000—2020年成渝地区双城经济圈人口经济与生态地质环境复合系统的综合发展状况进行评价，验证子系统之间的动态耦合关系并测度复合系统的耦合协调度。同时，探讨各子系统发展过程中的差异，分析研究期内复合系统耦合协调的时空演化特征及规律。研究结果表明：（1）成渝地区人口、经济与生态地质环境之间存在长期协调关系，具备共生共演条件。（2）成渝地区人口、经济与生态地质环境子系统整体呈上升趋势，其中四川部分明显优于重庆部分。此外，经济子系统的增长速度显著高于人口、生态地质环境子系统。（3）复合系统耦合协调发展呈现良性上升态势，由“复合螺旋结构”逐渐演变为“双核突出、周边塌陷、西强东弱”，主要协调状态从2000年的“基本协同—经济滞后”发展为2022年的“基本协同—人口滞后”。另外，经济发展水平较高的成德绵地区和渝中区呈现“高级协同—生态滞后”。
