Shifts bidirectional dependency between vegetation greening and soil moisture over the past four decades in China.

Soil moisture (SM) has changed significantly over the past 40 years in China, while NDVI has varied dramatically, leading to increasing regional conflict between vegetation growth and water resource use. Quantifying the bidirectional dependency between SM and NDVI is essential for understanding the balance between land vegetation and water resources. However, few studies have reported their mutual feedback and spatiotemporal bidirectional dependency. This paper aims to reveal the bidirectional dependency between SM and NDVI using Granger causality test to show spatiotemporal tendency coupling patterns through trend coupling analysis, wavelet transform, and lag correlation. The Results indicated that a coupling relationship existed between SM and NDVI over most of China. The unidirectional Granger effect between SM on NDVI was 58 %, the unidirectional Granger effect of NDVI on SM was 26 %, and the bidirectional Granger relationship between SM and NDVI was 16 %. The Granger relationship is different for different soil layers or land cover types. SM and NDVI increased together in 36 % of the land cover areas, but SM increased and NDVI decreased in 12 %, and the SM decreased and NDVI increased in 27 %. The trend coupling between SM and NDVI has spatial heterogeneity. There is no change rule of coupling relationship with drought variation, but SM and NDVI increased together with more overlapping ecological restoration projects. SM decreased with the increase of NDVI from 1982 to 2010 but has reversed since 2011. NDVI and SM co-increased significantly with the implementation of ecological restoration projects during 2011-2022. The coupling relationship has a time lag effect of 1-3 months, and the time lag of NDVI to SM of deep soil layers mainly occurred in Southern China. This study illustrated the coupling framework and feedback analysis between SM and vegetation greening, which is helpful for the scientific implementing ecological restoration projects and the management of ecosystem carbon and water cycles.