Restoration Ecology, Department of Life Science Systems, TUM School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Emil-Ramann-Str. 6, 85354, Freising, Germany.
Institute for Agroecology and Organic Farming, Bavarian State Research Center for Agriculture (LfL), Lange Point 12, 85354, Freising, Germany.
Sci Rep. 2023 Aug 19;13(1):13530. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-40646-z.
In the northern forelands of the Alps, farmers report an increase of Jacobaea aquatica in production grasslands. Due to its toxicity, the species affects grassland productivity and calls for costly control measures. We are investigating the extent to which management practices or climatic factors are responsible for the increase of the species and how the situation will change due to climate change. We tested for effects of management intensity, fertilization, agri-environmental measures, and soil disturbance, and modeled the occurrence of the species under rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 scenarios. The main determinants of the occurrence of the species are soil type and summer rainfall. A high risk is associated with wet soils and > 400 mm of rain between June and August; an influence of the management-related factors could not be detected. Under the climate-change scenarios, the overall distribution decreases and shifts to the wetter alpine regions. Thus, the current increase is rather a shift in the occurrence of the species due to the altered precipitation situation. Under future climatic conditions, the species will decline and retreat to higher regions in the Alps. This will decrease the risk of forage contamination for production grassland in the lowlands.
在阿尔卑斯山的北部前陆地区，农民报告说，生产性草地中水生羽扇豆的产量增加。由于其毒性，该物种会影响草地生产力，并需要采取昂贵的控制措施。我们正在调查管理实践或气候因素在多大程度上导致了该物种的增加，以及气候变化将如何导致这种情况发生变化。我们测试了管理强度、施肥、农业环境措施和土壤扰动的影响，并在 rcp4.5 和 rcp8.5 情景下对该物种的发生进行了建模。该物种发生的主要决定因素是土壤类型和夏季降雨量。高风险与湿润的土壤和 6 月至 8 月之间 >400 毫米的降雨有关；管理相关因素的影响无法检测到。在气候变化情景下，整体分布减少，并向更湿润的高山地区转移。因此，目前的增加更多的是由于降水情况的改变而导致的物种发生的转移。在未来的气候条件下，该物种将减少，并撤退到阿尔卑斯山的高海拔地区。这将降低低地生产性草地饲料污染的风险。
