Fischer E M, Beyerle U, Bloin-Wibe L, Gessner C, Humphrey V, Lehner F, Pendergrass A G, Sippel S, Zeder J, Knutti R
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
Nat Commun. 2023 Aug 22;14(1):4643. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-40112-4.
Recent temperature extremes have shattered previously observed records, reaching intensities that were inconceivable before the events. Could the possibility of an event with such unprecedented intensity as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave have been foreseen, based on climate model information available before the event? Could the scientific community have quantified its potential intensity based on the current generation of climate models? Here, we demonstrate how an ensemble boosting approach can be used to generate physically plausible storylines of a heatwave hotter than observed in the Pacific Northwest. We also show that heatwaves of much greater intensities than ever observed are possible in other locations like the Greater Chicago and Paris regions. In order to establish confidence in storylines of 'black swan'-type events, different lines of evidence need to be combined along with process understanding to make this information robust and actionable for stakeholders.
近期的极端气温打破了此前观测到的记录，达到了事件发生前难以想象的强度。基于事件发生前可获取的气候模型信息，能否预见像2021年太平洋西北部热浪这样强度前所未有的事件发生的可能性？科学界能否根据当前一代气候模型量化其潜在强度？在此，我们展示了如何使用集成增强方法来生成比太平洋西北部观测到的更热的热浪的物理上合理的情景。我们还表明，在大芝加哥地区和巴黎地区等其他地方，有可能出现比以往观测到的强度大得多的热浪。为了建立对“黑天鹅”型事件情景的信心，需要将不同的证据线与过程理解相结合，以使这些信息对利益相关者而言可靠且具有可操作性。
