School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Nat Commun. 2023 Apr 25;14(1):2152. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-37554-1.
Heatwaves are becoming more frequent under climate change and can lead to thousands of excess deaths. Adaptation to extreme weather events often occurs in response to an event, with communities learning fast following unexpectedly impactful events. Using extreme value statistics, here we show where regional temperature records are statistically likely to be exceeded, and therefore communities might be more at-risk. In 31% of regions examined, the observed daily maximum temperature record is exceptional. Climate models suggest that similar behaviour can occur in any region. In some regions, such as Afghanistan and parts of Central America, this is a particular problem - not only have they the potential for far more extreme heatwaves than experienced, but their population is growing and increasingly exposed because of limited healthcare and energy resources. We urge policy makers in vulnerable regions to consider if heat action plans are sufficient for what might come.
在气候变化的影响下，热浪变得越来越频繁，可能导致数千人死亡。适应极端天气事件通常是针对事件做出的反应，社区在经历意外的重大事件后会迅速学习。我们利用极值统计，展示了哪些地区的区域温度记录极有可能被打破，因此这些地区可能面临更大的风险。在所研究的 31%的地区，观察到的日最高温度记录是异常的。气候模型表明，类似的情况可能在任何地区发生。在一些地区，如阿富汗和中美洲部分地区，这是一个特别的问题——不仅这些地区可能经历比以往更极端的热浪，而且由于医疗保健和能源资源有限，这些地区的人口不断增长，且面临的风险不断增加。我们敦促脆弱地区的政策制定者考虑，针对即将到来的极端天气，防暑行动计划是否足够。
