Coumou Dim, Arias Paola A, Bastos Ana, Gonzales Charlotte Kendra Gotangco, Hegerl Gabriele C, Hope Pandora, Jack Christopher, Otto Friederike, Saeed Fahad, Serdeczny Olivia, Shepherd Theodore G, Vautard Robert
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Department of Weather and Climate Models, Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA, De Bilt, Netherlands.
PNAS Nexus. 2024 Aug 27;3(8):pgae277. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae277. eCollection 2024 Aug.
With climate extremes hitting nations across the globe, disproportionately burdening vulnerable developing countries, the prompt operation of the Loss and Damage fund is of paramount importance. As decisions on resource disbursement at the international level, and investment strategies at the national level, loom, the climate science community's role in providing fair and effective evidence is crucial. Attribution science can provide useful information for decision makers, but both ethical implications and deep uncertainty cannot be ignored. Considering these aspects, we articulate a vision that integrates established attribution methods and multiple lines of evidence within a coherent logical framework.
随着极端气候袭击全球各国，给脆弱的发展中国家带来了不成比例的沉重负担，损失与损害基金的迅速运作至关重要。随着国际层面资源分配决策以及国家层面投资战略的临近，气候科学界在提供公平且有效的证据方面的作用至关重要。归因科学可为决策者提供有用信息，但伦理影响和深度不确定性不容忽视。考虑到这些方面，我们阐述了一种愿景，即在一个连贯的逻辑框架内整合既定的归因方法和多条证据线索。
