Kalakoski Niilo, Verronen Pekka T, Szeląg Monika E, Jackman Charles H
Space and Earth Observation Centre, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory, University of Oulu, Sodankylä, Finland.
Sci Rep. 2023 Aug 24;13(1):13873. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-40129-1.
Large solar coronal mass ejections pose a threat in the near-Earth space. As a cause of extreme periods of space weather, they can damage satellite-based communications and create geomagnetically induced currents in power and energy grids. Further, the solar wind energetic particles can reduce the protecting layer of atmospheric ozone and pose a threat to life on Earth. The large coronal mass ejection (CME) of July 2012, although directed away from the Earth, is often highlighted as a prime example of a potentially devastating super storm. Here we show, based on proton fluxes recorded by the instruments aboard the STEREO-A satellite, that the atmospheric response to the July 2012 event would have been comparable to those of the largest solar proton events of the satellite era. Significant impact on total ozone outside polar regions would require a much larger event, similar to those recorded in historical proxy data sets. Such an extreme event would cause long-term ozone reduction all the way to the equator and increase the size, duration, and depth of the Antarctic ozone hole. The impact would be comparable to predicted drastic and sudden ozone reduction from major volcanic eruptions, regional nuclear conflicts, or long-term stratospheric geoengineering.
大型日冕物质抛射对近地空间构成威胁。作为极端空间天气事件的成因，它们会破坏卫星通信，并在电网中产生地磁感应电流。此外，太阳风高能粒子会减少大气臭氧层的保护层，对地球上的生命构成威胁。2012年7月的大型日冕物质抛射（CME），尽管其方向远离地球，但常被视为潜在毁灭性超级风暴的典型例子。在此我们基于STEREO-A卫星上仪器记录的质子通量表明，2012年7月事件对大气的影响与卫星时代最大的太阳质子事件相当。对极地以外地区总臭氧产生显著影响需要规模大得多的事件，类似于历史代理数据集中记录的那些事件。这样的极端事件将导致一直延伸到赤道的长期臭氧减少，并增加南极臭氧洞的面积、持续时间和深度。其影响将与重大火山爆发、地区核冲突或长期平流层地球工程预计导致的急剧和突然的臭氧减少相当。
