Division of Population Data Science, National Cancer Center Institute for Cancer Control, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, Japan
Division of Population Data Science, National Cancer Center Institute for Cancer Control, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
BMJ Open. 2023 Aug 31;13(8):e071785. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-071785.
OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic led to an increase in mortality in most countries in 2020, deviating from prior decreasing trends. In Japan, however, mortality was suggested to decrease in 2020. This study investigated long-term mortality trends and cause-specific contributions, focusing on the period of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan. DESIGN: We analysed Japanese age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) from 1995 to 2021 using vital statistics. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The cause-specific annual ASMR changes were calculated in comparison with the previous year over the abovementioned period. RESULTS: There was a general downward trend in overall ASMR for both sexes until 2020 followed by a small increase in 2021. In men, the all-cause ASMR (per 100 000 persons) decreased from 1352.3 to 1328.8 in 2020 (-1.74% from 2019), and increased to 1356.3 in 2021 in men (+2.07% from 2020). In women, the all-cause ASMR decreased from 746.0 to 722.1 in 2020 (-3.20% from 2019), and increased to 737.9 (+2.19% from 2020) in 2021. ASMRs from malignant neoplasms, pneumonia, accidents and suicide (men only) continued to decrease during the COVID-19 pandemic while the trend of cardiovascular mortality increased in 2021. Analysis of ASMR changes revealed that COVID-19, senility, cardiovascular disease and 'other causes not classified as major causes' contributed to the all-cause mortality increase in 2021. CONCLUSIONS: In Japan, the decreasing trend in overall mortality continued in 2020 despite the COVID-19 pandemic. However, approximately 2% mortality increase was observed in 2021, which was attributable to COVID-19, senility, cardiovascular disease and 'other causes'. The year 2021 was a turning point of mortality trends in Japan, although continued monitoring is warranted.
目的:2020 年,大多数国家的新冠肺炎疫情导致死亡率上升,偏离了此前的下降趋势。然而,在日本,死亡率据报道在 2020 年有所下降。本研究调查了日本在新冠肺炎疫情期间的长期死亡率趋势和特定原因的贡献。
设计:我们使用人口统计数据分析了 1995 年至 2021 年日本的年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR)。
主要观察指标:在上述期间,与前一年相比,计算了特定原因的年度 ASMR 变化。
结果:在 2020 年之前,男女的总体 ASMR 呈普遍下降趋势,随后在 2021 年略有上升。在男性中,全因 ASMR(每 100000 人)从 2019 年的 1352.3 降至 2020 年的 1328.8(比 2019 年下降 1.74%),并在 2021 年上升至 1356.3(比 2020 年上升 2.07%)。在女性中,全因 ASMR 从 2019 年的 746.0 降至 2020 年的 722.1(比 2019 年下降 3.20%),并在 2021 年上升至 737.9(比 2020 年上升 2.19%)。在新冠肺炎疫情期间,恶性肿瘤、肺炎、事故和自杀(仅限男性)的 ASMR 继续下降,而 2021 年心血管疾病死亡率呈上升趋势。ASMR 变化分析表明,2021 年全因死亡率的上升归因于新冠肺炎、衰老、心血管疾病和“其他未被归类为主要原因的原因”。尽管需要继续监测,但 2021 年是日本死亡率趋势的转折点。
结论:尽管发生了新冠肺炎疫情,但 2020 年日本的总体死亡率下降趋势仍在继续。然而,2021 年观察到约 2%的死亡率上升,这归因于新冠肺炎、衰老、心血管疾病和“其他原因”。尽管需要继续监测,但 2021 年是日本死亡率趋势的转折点。
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