[A Prognostic Model of Elderly Patients with Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Based on Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index].

BACKGROUND

The relationship between nutritional status and prognosis of cancer patients has emerged as a hotspot for research. The aim of this study is to explore the application value of the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) in assessing the prognosis of elderly patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), and establish a Nomogram to predict the prognosis of elderly patients with NSCLC.

METHODS

The data of patients with NSCLC aged ≥65 years who were initially treated in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2016 to December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. To determine the optimal cut-off value for GNRI, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed, and the patients were divided into high and low GNRI groups. Kaplan-Meier curve and Log-rank test were used to compare overall survival (OS) of the two groups. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression was used to analyze the risk factors for poor prognosis in elderly patients with NSCLC. Nomogram predicting survival in elderly patients with NSCLC was constructed and validated by using R software.

RESULTS

Statistically significant differences in age, gender, body mass index (BMI), histological type, albumin, treatment methods, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) and cytokeratin 19 fragment (CYFRA21-1) were observed between the high and low GNRI groups (P<0.05). The Kaplan-Meier curve showed a shorter OS in the low-GNRI group. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that CYFRA21-1>3.3 ng/mL was an independent risk factor for the development of OS in patients with NSCLC, and GNRI>97.09 was a protective factor [hazard ratio (HR)=0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.34-0.79, P<0.05]. Patients in the stage IV had a 1.98-fold increased risk of death compared with patients in the stage I (95%CI: 1.02-3.86, P<0.05). The risk of death was 3.58 times higher in patients receiving chemotherapy alone compared with those receiving combination therapy (95%CI: 2.03-6.32, P<0.05). A Nomogram constructed on the basis of GNRI, which predicted the OS of elderly patients with NSCLC with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.70 (95%CI: 0.65-0.76), and the area under the curve (AUC) for 1 and 2-year survival rates to be 0.93 (95%CI: 0.87-0.98) and 0.72 (95%CI: 0.63-0.80), respectively, and the calibration curve has a good coincidence of prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

High GNRI scores are significantly associated with improved survival in elderly patients with NSCLC, and reliance on cut-off values may provide the appropriate timing for nutritional support. The Nomogram constructed in this study can be used as an effective tool to predict the survival rate of elderly patients with NSCLC, which has strong clinical practicability.