Department of Agroecology, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., P.O. Box 19835-196, Tehran, Iran.
School of Engineering Design and Innovation, SEDI, Penn State, 213 Hammond Building, University Park, State College, PA, 16802, USA.
Environ Manage. 2024 Jan;73(1):34-50. doi: 10.1007/s00267-023-01875-0. Epub 2023 Sep 2.
This study applies the mental model and cognitive mapping method to involve stakeholders in delineating the mutual relations between sources of water, energy, and food (WEF) production in the Varamin Plain (VP). Through involving farmers and managerial experts, the approach facilitates the deployment of community communication patterns to recognize and comprehend problems and move from single-loop learning to double-loop learning. The dynamic model was driven from the final mental model of the participants to reflect changes in the systems over time. The system dynamic (SD) model incorporates three scenarios for enhancing irrigation efficiency, managing groundwater extraction, and satisfying environmental needs. The results uncovered that the surface and underground water resources of the VP will gradually decrease within the next two decades in the range of 158 and 2700 million cubic meters (MCM) per year. Also, the plain suffers from water insecurity and a 162 MCM shortage. Consequently, focusing on understanding the nexus and nexus governance can enhance resource management and achieve sustainable development goals. Essentially, promoting collaborative governance, such as creating cooperative organizations and implementing double-loop learning, and instituting a water market, regulatory governance, and monitoring laws can improve the state of Varamin Plain's resources. These results carry important policy implications for using mental models to consider dynamics for discussions on participatory management of the WEF system nexus and environmental management.
本研究应用心智模型和认知图方法，让利益相关者参与描绘瓦拉明平原（VP）的水、能源和粮食（WEF）生产源之间的相互关系。通过让农民和管理专家参与，该方法促进了社区沟通模式的部署，以识别和理解问题，并从单环学习转向双环学习。动态模型是从参与者的最终心智模型中驱动的，以反映系统随时间的变化。系统动力学（SD）模型包含了三个情景，用于提高灌溉效率、管理地下水开采和满足环境需求。研究结果表明，在未来二十年，VP 的地表水和地下水资源每年将减少 1.58 亿至 27 亿立方米。此外，该平原还面临着水资源不安全和 1.62 亿立方米的短缺。因此，关注理解关联和关联治理可以加强资源管理，实现可持续发展目标。从本质上讲，促进合作治理，如创建合作组织和实施双环学习，以及建立水市场、监管治理和监测法律，可以改善瓦拉明平原资源的状况。这些结果对于使用心智模型考虑动态，以讨论 WEF 系统关联的参与式管理和环境管理，具有重要的政策意义。
