Irrigation and Drainage Department, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran, Iran.
Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA.
J Environ Manage. 2021 Feb 15;280:111843. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111843. Epub 2020 Dec 23.
Understanding the complexity and feedbacks among food, energy, and water (FEW) systems is key to making informed decisions about sustainable development. This paper presents qualitative representation and quantitative system dynamics simulation of the water resources system in the Qazvin Plain, Iran, taking into account the energy intensity of water supply and interconnected water use sectors (e.g., urban, industrial, and agricultural). Qazvin Plain faces water resources challenges that are common to arid/semi-arid areas, including frequent droughts, declining surface water and groundwater, and increased urban and agricultural water demand. A system dynamics model is developed using historical data (2006-2016) to investigate the effects of anticipated dynamics of integrated water and energy sectors in the next two decades. The results of policy scenarios (2020-2039) demonstrate that the continuation of the existing management policies will cause severe damage to the water and energy sectors, pushing the system towards water resources limits to growth. An annual groundwater table decline of nearly 1 m is anticipated, indicating significant overshoot of the plain's natural recharge capacity, which may lead to the depletion of recoverable groundwater in the plain within the next three decades. The groundwater table decline will cause energy consumption of water supply to increase by about 32% (i.e., 380 GWh) to maintain irrigated agriculture. It is critical to implement a combination of water demand and supply management policies (e.g., net agricultural water savings and recycling treated wastewater) to delay the problem of water limits to growth in the region.
理解食物、能源和水（FEW）系统的复杂性和反馈是做出可持续发展明智决策的关键。本文提出了伊朗卡兹温平原水资源系统的定性表示和定量系统动力学模拟，考虑了供水和相互关联的用水部门（如城市、工业和农业）的能源强度。卡兹温平原面临着干旱/半干旱地区常见的水资源挑战，包括频繁的干旱、地表水和地下水位下降，以及城市和农业用水需求的增加。使用历史数据（2006-2016 年）开发了一个系统动力学模型，以研究未来二十年综合水和能源部门预期动态的影响。政策情景（2020-2039 年）的结果表明，现有管理政策的延续将对水和能源部门造成严重破坏，使系统朝着水资源增长极限发展。预计地下水位每年下降近 1 米，这表明该平原的自然补给能力严重超过，这可能导致平原可恢复地下水在未来三十年耗尽。地下水位的下降将导致供水能源消耗增加约 32%（即 380GWh），以维持灌溉农业。实施水需求和供应管理政策的组合（例如，净农业节水和回收处理后的废水）对于延迟该地区水资源增长极限问题至关重要。
