Departamento de Enfermagem Materno-Infantil e Saúde Pública, Escola de Enfermagem, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
Programa de Pós-Graduação em Saúde Pública, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
Public Health. 2023 Oct;223:162-170. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2023.07.013. Epub 2023 Aug 31.
The aims of this article were to analyse the burden of NCDs and their RFs in the Mercosur countries between 1990 and 2019 and to project mortality trends for 2030.
Epidemiological study of time series.
The present study used data from the Global Burden of Disease study. The absolute number of deaths, mortality rates, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, years lived with disability and the burden of premature mortality by NCD attributable to the RFs were evaluated. Projections were made up to 2030. Age-standardised rates were used to draw comparisons by years and by countries. The analysis was conducted using the RStudio software.
Between 1990 and 2019, a decrease was found in the premature mortality rates caused by NCDs in all the countries, except for Paraguay, which remained stable. When analysing premature mortality rates due to NCDs up to 2030, it was predicted that none of the countries would achieve the sustainable development goal of a one-third reduction in premature mortality by NCDs. Regarding the impacts of the RFs for NCDs, smoking, dietary risks, high blood pressure (BP) and high body mass index (BMI) were the main risks attributable to premature deaths due to NCDs.
The results showed that mortality rates are declining in Mercosur countries; however, none of the countries are predicted to achieve the sustainable development goal of a one-third reduction in mortality due to NCDs by 2030. In addition to access to adequate treatment, progress is required in public regulation actions to reduce RFs, such as smoking, dietary risks, high BP and high BMI.
本文旨在分析 1990 年至 2019 年期间南方共同市场国家非传染性疾病及其危险因素的负担，并预测 2030 年的死亡趋势。
时间序列的流行病学研究。
本研究使用了全球疾病负担研究的数据。评估了归因于危险因素的非传染性疾病导致的绝对死亡人数、死亡率、残疾调整生命年、生命损失年、失能生命年和过早死亡负担。预测至 2030 年。使用年龄标准化率按年份和国家进行比较。分析使用 RStudio 软件进行。
1990 年至 2019 年间，除巴拉圭保持稳定外，所有国家的非传染性疾病导致的过早死亡率均有所下降。分析截至 2030 年的非传染性疾病导致的过早死亡率，预计没有一个国家能够实现非传染性疾病导致的过早死亡率减少三分之一的可持续发展目标。关于非传染性疾病危险因素的影响，吸烟、饮食风险、高血压和高身体质量指数是导致非传染性疾病导致过早死亡的主要危险因素。
结果表明，南方共同市场国家的死亡率正在下降；然而，预计到 2030 年，没有一个国家能够实现非传染性疾病导致的死亡率减少三分之一的可持续发展目标。除了获得足够的治疗外，还需要在减少危险因素的公共监管行动方面取得进展，例如吸烟、饮食风险、高血压和高身体质量指数。
